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KK raise donk

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mlatasrb
Joined: 01.04.2012

partypoker - $0.04 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 51 BB (VPIP: 19.11, PFR: 16.47, 3Bet Preflop: 7.24, Hands: 2,473)
SB: 156.5 BB (VPIP: 22.32, PFR: 11.81, 3Bet Preflop: 3.90, Hands: 1,904)
BB: 94.5 BB (VPIP: 31.62, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 1.08, Hands: 2,066)
UTG: 126 BB (VPIP: 22.90, PFR: 18.68, 3Bet Preflop: 9.43, Hands: 1,129)
Hero (MP): 130.25 BB
CO: 222.75 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 8)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♥ K♠

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 8♦ Q♦ 5♥
SB bets 5 BB, Hero raises to 17 BB, SB calls 12 BB

Turn: (41 BB, 2 players) 9♣
SB bets 19.5 BB, Hero raises to 110.25 BB and is all-in, SB calls 90.75 BB

River: (261.5 BB, 2 players) 2♠

Spoiler

SB shows 5♦ 5♠ (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 20%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
Hero mucks K♥ K♠ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 80%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
SB wins 248.5 BB

donks 15% but folds vs cbet 69% (likely folds that much because donks value). so I put him on good QK+, sets, draws for donk? he cbets flop 89%, turn 80%, which shows that he is able to bluff a lot, AF flop 4, turn 5. wtsd only 20%.
Are those stats relevant for given sample, to conclude that he is agro, but will likely not go light to showdown (is KQ+ light in that case?). Could it be that his wtsd is so low because he folds flop so much?
is it overplay? many questions :)


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6 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Don't you think that if he is bluffing the flop, on turn he is telling the truth with that second donk, after the action on the flop?


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mlatasrb
Joined: 01.04.2012

Originally posted by nitrol
Don't you think that if he is bluffing the flop, on turn he is telling the truth with that second donk, after the action on the flop?

Yes, he could be telling the truth with AQ, KQ? thats why I shoved.


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"What will he call me with, when i shove?" is THE question in this spot.

There are also straights, sets and 2pair hands in his range.
About 12% of time you hit your set.
About 2% of time you hit 2p having unmatched cards.
How does his donk bet stat and range look now?
I think you will win this pot about 1 in 10 times.

Spoiler

I saw spoiler and am not surprised.

Answering your Qs.
Stats are relevant. ~2k hands is enough sample to determine his playing style.
Yes, his WTSD is small because he goes to SD only with good hand. He folds his bad ones or bluff them.

Hope that helps.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

It's kind of awkward to think that AQ/ KQ hand will donk/ call turn after flop action.
Here he is with at least 2P+.


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mlatasrb
Joined: 01.04.2012

Depends if he donks/calls AQ, KQ for value. If he does, then it is clear value raise + protection. If he donks only sets and draws, then it is just a call.
So it is based on pure assumption, I dont have any reads on his donk range, just that he donks 15%. but if he donks 15%, and folds 69% vs cbet, then it makes sense that he donks actually most of his Qx hands and not only bluffs (or not only bluffs + draws).
Off course we can also make assumption that his donk on turn after calling flop is very strong, but on the other hand he donks only 1/2 and he didnt 3bet flop so we can say it is not so strong as set.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Then call and see river.


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