[NL100] TP vs 2xPSB turn 3bp

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Swish29

Joined: 06.04.2009

Posts: 317

21.02.2015, 01:14 0

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($100) 100bb
UTG+1 ($93.59) 94bb
CO ($105.10) 105bb
Hero (BTN) ($100) 100bb
SB ($131.61) 132bb
BB ($149.71) 150bb

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN
3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, SB raises to $9, 1 fold, Hero calls $6.50

Flop: ($19, 2 players)
SB bets $10, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($39, 2 players)
SB bets $82, $81 to Hero ($81)?

So I really wanted to fold ingame because I just never saw people doing this as a bluff and at the same this sport is so rare that I haven't seen it for value either a lot I guess. In theory this should go in my calling range given that I'll fold all QJ/QT/JT/J9s/T9s/A9s, so I should call any TP for sure.

Basically if I fold here I'm very exploitable though it didn't feel good to call, based on my experience, though I have a limited experience of these kind of spots.

Some stats:
23/18, 8% 3bet, 12% SB vs BT.
Barrels 68 (25)/60(5)/100(1) in 3bet pots.

NL100 or I quit poker

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1 reply

_Anonymous_

26.02.2015, 14:00 0

Hi,

I feel that he has there more often some huge combo draw, like JsTs or picked up A high flushdraw and wants to get maximum fold equity. It would be very strange to overbet shove for value with sets, since you end up likely calling him down anyway with Kx hands and AK/AA should also go more often standard 3 streets for value.
You need to have there around 40% equity.
if he is doing that with draws, it is clear call:
board: Kc9s3d8s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
KhJc 65.50% 317 0
TsJs, As*s 34.50% 167 0

If he adds up aces, it is marginal call:
board: Kc9s3d8s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
KhJc 46.39% 347 0
TsJs, As*s, AA 53.61% 401 0

and if he should also shove AA and AK it becomes fold:
board: Kc9s3d8s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
KhJc 34.85% 368 0
TsJs, As*s, AA, AK 65.15% 688 0

Likely if I had 10k roll I would snapcall and with 5k roll think a littlebit more and then call half the times. People are just not overbetshoving 2x times for value too often that I should fold top pair hand in 3bet pot BU vs SB war.

best regards,

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