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NL25 zoom AK

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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

BU 16/12
AF:1.8
fold to 3b:64
fold to 3b BU:57
4b:0
Fold to F cb 3b pot:29(7)
Agg%: 29/28/42
WTSD:32
W$SD:68
706h.

SB 23/0 14h.

Not sure how to play this hand.

If wouldn't have Ac, I would probably bet OTT.

I expect him to x Jx OTT. So OTR , when he shoves, he is repping JJ/KJ/QTs/ maybe J9s and 33. It very hard to find bluffs in his range maybe AdTd/AxTc/AdQd/AxQc/8c7c/Tc8c.

I expect BU to call with wider range pre than usual, because we are deeper and SB is fish.

It's probably very optimistic to expect him to bluff on this paired board:


Board: J♦3♣K♣ 9♠ J♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    33.33%  33.33%   0.00% { AcKd }
MP3    66.67%  66.67%   0.00% { JJ, 33, KJs, QTs, J9s, AdQd, AdTd, 8c7c, KJo, AdQc, AhQc, AdTc, AhTc }

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2660182
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $39.33
SB: $21.83
Hero (BB): $47.04
UTG: $25.43
MP: $24.00
CO: $31.55

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with K :diamond: A :club:
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.62, SB calls $0.52, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $2.38, SB calls $2.38

Flop: ($9.00) J :diamond: 3 :club: K :club: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.05, BTN calls $4.05, SB folds

Turn: ($17.10) 9 :spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $8.82, Hero calls $8.82

River: ($34.74) J :spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $23.46 all in, Hero ???


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metza
Joined: 28.01.2012

I think we can value bet OTT.

Equity Win Tie
SB 65.06% 58.09% 6.98% AcKd
BB 34.94% 27.96% 6.98% QQ+, AKs, AJs, KQs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, AdQd, AdTd, Td9d, Tc9c, AKo, AJo

On river as played I like x/f, just seems pretty hopeful for him to turn worse pairs into bluff, and yeah A♣: is really shitty card to have, with A♣: and K♣: out there's not a ton of FD for him to have.


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

interesting. i don't see many Jx in his callflop/betturn range but on the other hand a ton of bluffs are blocked. in the end i guess we might be able to apply the nit theorem and x/f one time


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