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Bluffing on opponent-favoured board

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Hi,
I can't make up my mind whether I was correct to check-raise-bluff on this flop.

PokerStars - $0.50/$1 (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 25 BB (VPIP: 34.58, PFR: 26.59, 3Bet Preflop: 18.75, Hands: 352)
Hero (UTG): 97.32 BB
CO: 32.14 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BTN: 18.68 BB (VPIP: 32.44, PFR: 22.99, 3Bet Preflop: 10.86, Hands: 454)
SB: 23.83 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)

SB posts SB 0.25 BB, BB posts BB 0.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 0.75 BB) Hero has 9♠ 8♠

Hero raises to 1 BB, fold, BTN raises to 1.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 0.5 BB

Flop: (3.75 BB, 2 players) A♣ A♠ T♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 1 BB, BTN calls 0.5 BB

Turn: (5.75 BB, 2 players) J♥
Hero bets 1 BB, BTN calls 1 BB

River: (7.75 BB, 2 players) 5♠
Hero bets 1 BB, BTN calls 1 BB

Hero shows 9♠ 8♠ (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 39%, Flop 6%, Turn 9%)
BTN shows Q♦ A♦ (Three of a Kind, Aces) (Pre 61%, Flop 94%, Turn 91%)
BTN wins 9.35 BB

A 3-straight, 3-flush-hand without showdown value should be predestined for a bluff in this situation, but KQ, KJs and maybe QJs would be the only hands a balanced opponent would 3-bet against an UTG-open without making at least a pair. What would you have done?


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4 replies
Avataren
Joined: 28.04.2010

i would have called to the river and then folded.

man hes passive makes me lead to think you shouldn't bluff him if he is so scared that he calls down AQ here


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redskwerl
Joined: 04.03.2008

I don't think it's bad to only call down with AQ. At best he's a small favorite vs our value x/r range. Perhaps it's ok to 3bet the flop, but it's marginal. The turn J is the worst card, making it a clear calldown at that point.


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djchals
Joined: 09.01.2012

I think you have few fold equity in 3betted pot and this board matches exactly with his range, only possible he folds a possible poket pair 66-99, and a lot of players never folds poket pairs. Better c/f flop and go to other hand ;)


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kavboj84
Joined: 16.06.2011

Wow a very intersting spot, actually you have to bluff 2 combos on the river, but the most interesting is that most likely BU has no raising range on the turn even with the nuts. WP BTW.


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