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[NL25] AQ overbet on the river

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crazyguy
Joined: 22.02.2008

Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $29.52 (118.1 bb)
BB: $9.26 (37 bb)
UTG: $11.84 (47.4 bb)
Hero (MP): $82.33 (329.3 bb)
CO: $28.43 (113.7 bb)
BTN: $59.59 (238.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO folds, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 7 Q 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.17, BTN calls $1.17

Turn: ($4.19) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.75, BTN raises to $5.50, Hero calls $2.75

River: ($15.19) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $21.66, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$15.19 pot ($0.75 rake)
Final Board: 7 Q 7 4 3
Hero mucked A Q and lost (-$7.42 net)
BTN mucked and won $14.44 ($7.02 net)

very weird hand for me. i can't figure out his river bet.

my thought process trough the hand:
flop is mandatory cbet with top pair top kicker on a dry board.

turn is i think a decent card for us. we are still ahead most of the times. there is the ocasionall 7 in his range but not very likely. so we bet again. after his raise on the turn I think about 2 things. first he can have the 7 and is extracting value. second a turned flushdraw which he is playing aggresivelly. we get pretty good odds to call. so i make the call there thinking we have the best hand about 40% of the time.

Then the river completes the flush which sucks for us so i don't think i can get value out of worse hand and valuetown myself with a bet against every 7 and the occasional flush. so we check hoping to check it down and win a decent amount at showdown. but he bets very large which is either weakness( but what?) or a 7 i think. but why overbet with a 7?

What does this overbet on the river mean? didn't expect this kind of bet.


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Mostly it should be for value. Since flush got there I don´t think he would expect you to fold flushes and you might get suspicious with overpairs. You would likely see enough times 77/44 to c/f against overbet.


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