played MTT tonight with 463 players and this is on final table with 4 players left
the two short stacks are loose but the player in hand seems to be good player
Microgaming 2K GP , $5.50 , 4 players , blinds 4,000/8,000
UTG (201,000)
BUT (157,000)
SB (97,000)
BB (239,500) hero
Cards curnow 9 
9 
preflop
UTG raises all-in 201,000 , 2 fold , hero ?
got him out chipped but is it worth taking a coinflip in this position
prize money 1st= $579 , 2nd= $357 , 3rd= $243 , & 4th= $162
Hi all,
Taking the first 3 places:
1st = 43.1%
2nd = 26.6%
3rd = 18.1%
4th = 12.1%
And assuming no antes.. here is the SNGWizard analysis:
Breakeven point is at around 17%, meaning villain has to openpush 33+, A2s+, A5o+, KTs+, KQo for us to make this call profitable. Because he doesn't, we have an easy fold. An interesting model would be to take the top 3% of hands (JJ+, AK) out of his range but even then he has to push AT+, A8s+ and 55-TT for us to call. I don't think he does this, so I fold.
very interesting , may try using it a bit more myself
was not sure about his range but was expecting a coinflip and still have 29BB & chip lead if fold and was it the best spot or was there a better spot
thats an easy fold.
even with JJ i would consider folding in this position....
you have the lead, much time left and no need to flip or gamble.
fold
Originally posted by grummeler
thats an easy fold.
even with JJ i would consider folding in this position....
you have the lead, much time left and no need to flip or gamble.
fold
This is an interesting point. The reason I don't fold JJ though is because I feel with QQ+ he would make a raise, and also with AK, so with JJ I'm either flipping against AQ or way ahead against TT, 99, etc.
(So I call JJ, and probably fold TT).
I'm on grummeler's side here... I fold 99 and even TT here... JJ is a call in my book...
And I agree with Chenny that we need to take away the top of his range since he's not shoving KK+ he'll most likely just raise these hands... I feel like he might shove QQ tho... But I'm folding 99 here :I... TT pretty marginal spot and I would call with JJ+
yea might be true, i think this is a situation we can only read with good reads ♦
but i hate to call such big all ins with just jacks.
although every THINKING player would never push all in with QQ+ in this spot, NO THINKING PLAYER would push ANY hand all in with such a big stack 
so he might be a tricky trappy player or a fish anyway 
because pushing 30BB all in is a mistake anyway
Originally posted by grummeler
yea might be true, i think this is a situation we can only read with good reads ♦
but i hate to call such big all ins with just jacks.
although every THINKING player would never push all in with QQ+ in this spot, NO THINKING PLAYER would push ANY hand all in with such a big stack
so he might be a tricky trappy player or a fish anyway
lot of players on the lower levels of MTT dont seem to know how to play deepstack and play down the streets , and maybe thats why they play push/fold like in sng
had a look at his pushes & he on another time pushed 20BB all-in with QJs and raised 6BB with Js , he never seemed to raised normal , either push or 6-12BB
QJs is like 7.4% so 9s is close to bottom of this range , so think Chenny got the range very close
hand I folded & few hands against the two looser plaers , won big pot with 8s against 97o & then lost big pot with ATs against Q2s with him flopping set Qs but he donked them of few hands later
endded up second , was aspleep for first hour only to find had 2BB left so pretty happy ♦
Originally posted by grummeler
yea might be true, i think this is a situation we can only read with good reads ♦
but i hate to call such big all ins with just jacks.
although every THINKING player would never push all in with QQ+ in this spot, NO THINKING PLAYER would push ANY hand all in with such a big stack
so he might be a tricky trappy player or a fish anyway
well i could only take it for granted what OP said about our opponent here being good :<. But you're right, a good player's range here is: .
Originally posted by chenny8888
well i could only take it for granted what OP said about our opponent here being good :<. But you're right, a good player's range here is: .
LOL I LOVE THIS WAY TO WRITE HIS RANGE.
jut a fullstop. nothing more.
his range is:. THATS SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LOOOOOOL ♦
thx
that was really funny 
