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9TJ4DS in 3bet pot

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Janosikgdy
Joined: 06.05.2007

Poker Stars $5.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 2701977
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $6.57 - VPIP: 54, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 0,7, Hands: 13
SB: $17.36 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 5,5, Hands: 79
BB: $6.82 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 32
UTG: $9.97 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 2,1, Hands: 1481
MP: $12.97 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 1,7, Hands: 108
Hero (CO): $5.70

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with J :spade: T :diamond: 4 :spade: 9 :diamond:
1 fold, MP raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.52, 3 folds, MP calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.11) 5 :club: 8 :heart: Q :diamond: (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.53, MP raises to $1.80, Hero calls $1.27

Turn: ($4.71) 6 :club: (2 players)
MP bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

I have no Idea how to play this hand on postflop. I bet called, because i thought i have odds (the same with turn).
I dont know if better to c/c, c/shove, b/f or bet/call.

I tried to play with euqilator

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
5,852,340 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 5♣8♥Q♦
9dTdJs4s 35.82% (2,044,298 wins, 104,276 ties)
AKQ,AJQ,9TJQ,QQ,Q89,Q9Tt,5678,6789,789T 64.18% (3,703,766 wins, 104,276 ties)


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2 replies
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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Equilab is sort of useless there, unless you want to get it in on the flop. What you need to do is to find out how often you will hit one of your outs on the turn. That all-in equity that Equilab is showing is your equity if you see both turn and river. But here when you call, you have to play the turn before you get to the river.

It is safe to assume that opponent has a better made hand than you. So you need to hit the straight. You have 13 outs (7,9,T,J).

Here's the trick: to know your equity for the next street (how often you will hit one of those outs) you use x2+2 formula. Outs x2, and then +2.

Here you have 13 outs, so that x2 is 26 and +2 gives 28%. (to be more precise, when you have 11+ outs you can use +3).

The actual probability is 13 outs from 44 unknown cards (13/44) = 29,5%.

So you know that you will hit your outs almost 30% of the times on the turn. To call his bet, you need (1.27/4.71) 27% equity. As all of our outs are to the nuts, that call is mandatory.

On the turn, you need (2.50/9.71) 26% equity to call. Now you have only 9 outs to the nuts (as any club completes a flush). Those 9 outs give you 20% (9x9+2) chance to hit nuts on the river. You have only 90c behind you, which your opponent is probably going to call if you hit the river. And most of the times your straight is good even if the river is a club.

So I would call flop and call turn, and shove any river that gives you straight.

Another thing is his betsizing on the flop (doesn't pot) and especially on the turn. You have only 3.40 in your stack on the turn and he could just shove but decides not to. What ever his hand is, that is a clear mistake on his part.


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JohnCenaFA
Joined: 29.12.2009

Hey!

For me this cbet sizing looks weak, shouldn't it be 65-75cents?


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