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0.25/0.50$ - x/r flop?

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check/raise flop here? I think so

His 3bet it´s 11%.

77+
A9s/ATo+
KTs/KQo+
QTs+

On the flop I have 57% eq. His cbet flop it´s 100% and turn 69%. Its clear the x/r flop?

$0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

Preflop: Hero is CO with A Q
MP folds, Hero raises, BTN 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls

Flop: (7.5 SB) 9 Q K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets, Hero calls

Turn: (4.7 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (4.7 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets, BTN folds

Results: 4.7 BB pot (0.2 BB rake)
Final Board: 9 Q K 6 8
Hero mucked A Q and won 4.5 BB (2.5 BB net)
BTN mucked and lost (-2 BB net)


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9 replies
FlorinCatana
Joined: 19.07.2011

Being CO/BTN I would x/r here.
If his total 3b is 11%, on the BTN/co situation it is for sure wider, so your equity is much bigger on this flop!


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jonnyZ
Joined: 24.05.2010

Why so u think that x/r is superior to x/c?


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FlorinCatana
Joined: 19.07.2011

His Bt/co 3b range looks like this, at minimum:
44+
A3s,A8o
KT
QJs, which is 15,5% (you can also add A2s, some JTs, T9s,33,22 maybe, but let's keep tighter).

With this range and his 100% flop cb we have almost 65,5% equity which kind of screams for a x/r. And really we can barrel almost every turn card and charge the most from his weaker hands which he checks back!


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jonnyZ
Joined: 24.05.2010

Yes we have 65 % eq vs his cb-range on the flop if we call. If we rasie his cb dont we just isolate us against a range that we have alot less eq against?


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FlorinCatana
Joined: 19.07.2011

Even against his calling range (99+, A9o, A3ss+, A3dd+, KT,QJ) we have 51% equity (he's not folding that much out of his 3b range) so we shouldn't give him the chance of checking back turn with all his AJ,AT,QJ,A9,TT,JJ etc


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The theory says that to rasie postflop for value, we need between 50 - 66% equity, because we have to count how many times the opponent 3bets.

If the oponent only raise with the best hands and only calls with worse hands, we need a 60-66% of equity on the flop to raise. And I think this situation exists with this oponent.

EV (Raise): = (EQ*1BB) – [(1- EQ) * 2BB]

EV > 0 -> EQ – [(1-EQ) * 2] > 0
EQ – 2 + 2EQ > 0
3EQ > 2 -> EQ > 2/3 -> EQ > 66%

In this situation the oponent I think that he 3bets only the best hands and only pay me the worse hands.
I think that I need a bit of more equity on the flop to raise, if he dont bet too often worse hands on the turn (69% cbet/turn)...

What you think about that Florin?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

There is no way we can check-raise on this flop for value. It's a pretty bad flop. We will win the small pot and lose the big ones - and he has position.


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I Agree! Are you agree with the theory of raise for value:

EV (Raise): = (EQ*1BB) – [(1- EQ) * 2BB]

EV > 0 -> EQ – [(1-EQ) * 2] > 0
EQ – 2 + 2EQ > 0
3EQ > 2 -> EQ > 2/3 -> EQ > 66%

Conditions: (If the oponent only raise with the best hands and only calls with worse hands)
Obviously not always the case, so we can use between 50-66%, according to the opponent. What do you think?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Ah! Someone mathematically inclined.

I agree, but only roughly. You should not use equities on the right hand side of the first formula, but rather probabilities in combination with equities. The pot size does not enter, which is clearly wrong. Then, also, it is very hard to come up with an exact formula when the bets that go in are not the last bets. Who knows, you might want to 4-bet bluff:f_biggrin:

The number you came up with sounds very reasonable anyway. There is a "rule of thumb" that says 55-60% equity in the simplified case of being IP HU OTR for a value bet.


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