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FR, nut flush OTR. What to do?

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Zanardi1
Joined: 04.01.2010

Pacific, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $3.16 (79 bb)
BB: $4.06 (101.5 bb)
UTG+2: $5.16 (129 bb)
Hero (MP1): $4.42 (110.5 bb)
MP2: $4 (100 bb)
MP3: $5.17 (129.3 bb)
CO: $2.74 (68.5 bb)
BTN: $4 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A A
UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0.12, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.30) 4 5 J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.22, MP3 calls $0.22

Turn: ($0.74) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.49, MP3 raises to $0.98, Hero calls $0.49

River: ($2.70) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.10 and is all-in, MP3 folds

Results: $2.70 pot ($0.15 rake)
Final Board: 4 5 J Q 3
Hero mucked A A and won $2.55 ($1.23 net)
MP3 mucked and lost (-$1.32 net)

Mr. Villain is 16/9 from 800 hands. 55% fold to cbet (33% from 12 samples fold to cbet IP).

Preflop and flop: standard.

OTT I half-pot it and he min-raises. I know that it's extremely likely that he has a flush, but I have a redraw to the nut flush. Because of my small bet size and of his min-raise, I have correct odds to call.

My question is: what to do OTR? I have the best hand, but now what? I am OOP. If I check, he might as well check back and I don't get any extra value for my hand. If I bet, I think only K♥: will (reluctantly) call me. How can I get maximum value in this spot? In this hand, I chose to shove because a) I had the best hand and b) I hoped that he might level himself or call for whatever reason.


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9 replies
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

I'd play the same way and pray that he has the K♥:. No need for second thoughts. He is probably not bluffing much on that board, and certainly not with many smaller flushes and maybe a set or two that will call. If he folded T♥:, then it is bad luck. Such a player is too nitty to bet them anyway.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I think most of the time we are vs a smaller flush and I like to push.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I don't think he will call our push with any flush, even K-high flush is questionable because he know that he doesn't have the nuts. I would rather bet something like 1/2 and expect calls from almost any flush. I believe it will be more profitable in the long run.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

When you bet 1/2 he will see you are committed. Shove instead.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by nitrol
When you bet 1/2 he will see you are committed. Shove instead.

I don't think he will see that. He will just see that the call with T-high flush is not too expensive to make.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Don't agree on that. If someone is going to pay- he will pay.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

It is easy to see that he should rationally speaking be folding much more to a pot-sized bet than a half-pot bet. But people get confused to the extreme and tend to devalue the larger bet-size (totally illogically) and see it more or less as a bluff (why would he betting that big with the NUTS?). As long as we don't lose half of the audience, betting pot is better than betting half-pot. This is a reverse FPS syndrome, and it does certainly exist.


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legenyPS
Joined: 10.03.2011

I agree with the half-pot bet here. People on this level would call whatever they have if they have anything(it happened to me that I was bluff-shoving and was called some 6 or 7 in Villain's hand).
If he had flush, he would rather re-raise to this in my opinion.

I think the turn-raise by Mr. Villain was a test for the FD, given by the size (only 2x of the bet) - once it called then it means that we would not fold to anything later on.


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generals007
Joined: 17.09.2007

I'm also pushing here, and hoping for K♥: and hero calls with low flushes, which come in more often than one thinks. I can see the smaller bet too though, and I think the only way to know how this works out over the long run is test it, because it's so dependent on how they play on average, and not on the "logic" of the hand.


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