BB is a loose pasive player prelfop (fish). His range of 3bet vs steal from sb is only (+TT,+AQs, AKo). Play pasive flop/turn is std. The interestig thing is the move on the river. I will assume that he bet with all of his range preflop on the turn.
The question: donk or x/r river?
Total of combos: 41
EQ river: 97.55%
Total pot of x/r (including my bet and his call): 10BB
Total pot of donk (including his call; Is a completly fish will not retire with AKo): 8BB
Assumptions:
Looking for a check/rasie:
- (9/41 he bet 100% of times ) EV = (0.9755 * 10) - 2 = +7.755BB
- (32/41 he check behind) EV = (0.9755*6) - 0 = +5.85BB
Donk:
- (3/41 he raise, I 3bet and he call) EV = (0.9755 * 12) - 3 = 8.70BB
- (38/41 he call) EV = (0.9755 * 8) - 1 = 6.80BB
Seeing this I like the donk, what do you think?
$0.50/$1 Limit Hold'em Cash, 3 Players
Preflop: Hero is SB with A
J
BTN folds, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls
Flop: (6 SB) 4 Q 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero calls
Turn: (4 BB) Q
(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero calls
River: (6 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls
Results: 10 BB pot (0.5 BB rake)
Final Board: 4 Q 2 Q 8
Hero showed A J and won 9.5 BB (4.5 BB net)
BB showed A K and lost (-5 BB net)
