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Do you value bet the river?

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WhiteWalker
Joined: 06.06.2015

I am just wondering how you judge whether to value bet this river or not. Villains line doesn't suggest backdoor clubs and is likely drawing to a straight like I was in the hand. Therefore we likely have similar outs but I am not sure what the likely hood of him checking a flush on the river is unless it is J high maybe.

Thoughts?

PokerStars - $0.02 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 74 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 27.03, PFR: 16.99, 3Bet Preflop: 3.80, Hands: 260)
Hero (UTG): 112 BB
CO: 94 BB (VPIP: 63.64, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BTN: 49 BB (VPIP: 52.38, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 21)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7♠ T♣ K♠ J♠

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) A♦ 6♥ Q♣
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 7 BB, fold, BB calls 7 BB

Turn: (23 BB, 2 players) K♣
BB checks, Hero bets 15 BB, BB calls 15 BB

River: (53 BB, 2 players) 4♣
BB checks, Hero checks

Spoiler

BB shows T♠ K♦ 2♥ Q♠ (Two Pair, Kings and Queens)
(Pre 52%, Flop 74%, Turn 11%)
Hero shows 7♠ T♣ K♠ J♠ (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 48%, Flop 26%, Turn 89%)
Hero wins 51.5 BB


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8 replies
FlyingDutchm1n
Joined: 21.08.2012

I would still valuebet/fold small on the river I think, it is unlikely for him to have the backdoor flush and it looks like he just wants to get it to showdown. Checking back in this spot is just a tead too weak imo but I can also see your point of view where you think either he has it or he may think I have it, so he won't call anything substantial anymore.


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WhiteWalker
Joined: 06.06.2015

So I thought about it and I think if I bet here it should be bigger than half pot. It is likely that we are chopping in this situation some of the time and you would expect a raise from JTXXcc on the turn or river. Therefore if I can get a T high flush to fold this must be a good thing as a result I think I would be sensible in betting river IP as he likely donks the nuts, so 2/3rd++ pot in my opinion, maybe even pot to really tie down the flushes that call me considering if he checks I could rep the Ac.


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Padelbro
Joined: 21.01.2010

You're not trying to get BD-flush to fold, because it will not.

You're valuebetting, mostly against slowplayed sets on the flop or top2 etc. It's thin though, he shouldn't have many sets and could be that you get called only by better hands.


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FlyingDutchm1n
Joined: 21.08.2012

Agree with SeagalSteven, there is a big difference between getting a direct Thi flushdraw to fold and a backdoor Thi flushdraw to fold! The latter is not likely to happen.


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WhiteWalker
Joined: 06.06.2015

Fair I spoke to a few others and they said it is just a check back. I am trying to think beyond what I need to in this spot and if they have called to flush then villain is not folding when he or she makes the flush. I'll just have to accept it and move on haha. Topic closed. :f_drink:


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

To get the answer you need to give your opponent a range. And start it from the flop:

- What is his calling range on the flop?
- What is his calling range on the turn?
- What is his folding/calling ranges on the river?

When you do that, you should have his river ranges. Then you just see if his calling range has over 50% of worse hands than yours.


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FlyingDutchm1n
Joined: 21.08.2012

Good answer Kyyberi, but sometimes if villain is unknown/not super known this is quite hard to turn into an exact science. In this case I would personallly thin value bet river (thin) with my broadway straight considering the action of previous streets and unlikeliness of the backdoor flush, and simply take a note on villain calling with middle pair + gutshot on this board (which btw would be something I would not generally be able to really specifically put into his flop calling range without having seen this actually happen before).


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Yes, but even against more or less unknowns we should estimate things. One of the differences between good and not-so-good players is the accuracy of their estimations.

- What is his calling range on the flop?
He shouldn't have air, and he shouldn't have AAxx. He can have everything else in his calling range.

- What is his calling range on the turn?
He would raise his JT, and he would fold all the hands that are below broadway 2 pairs.

- What is his folding/calling ranges on the river?
He calls with all the flushes, and he might hero call KK,QQ.

So it is clear to me that he doesn't call the river bet over 50% with a worse hand, which makes check the standard option.


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