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Difficult decision on the river - What to do???

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diminem99
Joined: 06.04.2015

Hi everyone,

I have a strong hand but might be facing the nuts. How to react in this kind of situations?

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 78.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 20)
Hero (BB): 143.5 BB
UTG: 140.5 BB (VPIP: 32.47, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 77)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.49, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 2.22, Hands: 148)
CO: 125 BB (VPIP: 18.78, PFR: 17.13, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 183)
BTN: 76.5 BB (VPIP: 31.51, PFR: 4.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 74)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7♣ 7♥

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, UTG calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 4♠ J♠ A♦
Hero bets 3 BB, UTG calls 3 BB

Turn: (12.5 BB, 2 players) 3♦
Hero bets 6 BB, UTG calls 6 BB

River: (24.5 BB, 2 players) 7♠
Hero ???

What should the bet sizing be after seeing the 3rd Spade come on the board? I suspect he might have made his flush, but am not completely sure and want to try and take down the pot anyways because I still think I might be ahead.
Also is there a rule of thumb to assess the probabilities that a single opponent might have made their flush? Like 20% of the time or something like that?

Thanks in advance for the replies!


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8 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Post 1 hand per thread, please. Thus you can recieve a much more detailed opinions and help.

Hand#1 - Iso-raise the limper more - to 4BB. Vs such villain I would like to bet/fold river. Ifhe raises you - you will knoq that he's got it.

Hand#2 - the same - iso raising should be a little bigger. Flop bet is absolute lol - you do not get value, noone folds. On such a dry board make a 50-60% cbet. On the turn your bet is again too small and I cannot decide whether it provokes villain to bluff raise you or not. But as a general rule - after turn raise, continue with top 2P+.


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bonecore
Joined: 02.11.2009

hand1:
The question is how will you make money in this situation?
If the opponent likes to limp/fold then you should raise larger (5x)
if the opponent likes to limp/call and has wtsd<25 and high fold to cbet ~70% then you isolate and take down the pot postflop.
if the opponent likes to limp/call and has wtsd>25 and low fold to cbet <50 then you should see a cheap flop!
By raising you are giving money away because you cant steal postflop

as played you say nothing about the oponent so you know nothing about him.You can not even put him on a range so what river action you want me to tell you?
In cases like these choose the the most conservative action. That is see a cheap flop.
Stop trowing money away like in this hand.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Betting on flop and turn is lol, but preflop he can raise. onesmall reason is when we hit a set we want villain to have a good enough hand so he can pay us off...


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diminem99
Joined: 06.04.2015

Hello guys and thanks for the replies.

"if the opponent likes to limp/call and has wtsd<25 and high fold to cbet ~70% then you isolate and take down the pot postflop.
if the opponent likes to limp/call and has wtsd>25 and low fold to cbet <50 then you should see a cheap flop!
By raising you are giving money away because you cant steal postflop"

Bonecore, thanks for the comment, I am definately trying to focus more on Villain's stats, and see how I can exploit that, but I am not good at it yet. Btw is a 77 hands sample enough for WTSD number?


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WhiteWalker
Joined: 06.06.2015

Originally posted by diminem99
Hello guys and thanks for the replies.

"if the opponent likes to limp/call and has wtsd<25 and high fold to cbet ~70% then you isolate and take down the pot postflop.
if the opponent likes to limp/call and has wtsd>25 and low fold to cbet <50 then you should see a cheap flop!
By raising you are giving money away because you cant steal postflop"

Bonecore, thanks for the comment, I am definately trying to focus more on Villain's stats, and see how I can exploit that, but I am not good at it yet. Btw is a 77 hands sample enough for WTSD number?

77 hands is not enough. Accurate result will require 1000+ hands.

Bet 4/5bb on flop, x/t. bet fold river.


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diminem99
Joined: 06.04.2015

WhiteWalker, Thanks for the reply.

I am new to this forum and poker in general, what does x/t. mean? "Check Turn"?

Let's say I check the turn and face a 2/3 bet from villain, what should I do then? Is a call for a bet this size acceptable in this situation?


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bonecore
Joined: 02.11.2009

Originally posted by diminem99
Bonecore, thanks for the comment, I am definately trying to focus more on Villain's stats, and see how I can exploit that, but I am not good at it yet. Btw is a 77 hands sample enough for WTSD number?

77 hands is not enough for WTSD(wtsd is close related to vpip) but in combination with vpip and fold to cbet you get an idea in 20 hands

why is wtsd close related to vpip?
because if we have high vpip like 40% then we should have a wtsd about 20 or less since we have alot of bad hands
if we have low vpip like 12% then we should have a wtsd about 30 since we play only strong hands
For most decent players vpip is about 25 so example if you have a vpip of 21 and wtsd of 27 then you are calling a bit more than you should! You like to bluffcatch or something.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

77 hands is a very small sample. You should not fall into the trap of playing according yo stats over duch small samples. You can place a filter that will show you a certain stat only after it appears in a decent number of occasions.


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