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Sets of Jacks on the Flop vs fish 100% VPIP

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kiromanAAKK
Joined: 08.10.2009

IPoker, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $0.83 (41.5 bb)
BB: $3.52 (176 bb)
Hero (UTG): $2.47 (123.5 bb)
MP: $3.41 (170.5 bb)
CO: $1.95 (97.5 bb)
BTN: $1.70 (85 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J J
Hero raises to $0.08, MP folds, CO calls $0.08, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.19) 6 5 J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.14, CO calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.47) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.32, CO calls $0.32

River: ($1.11) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.77, CO raises to $1.41 and is all-in, Hero?

villain - VPIP: 92, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1.4, Hands: 12

As seems, villain is almost unknown as only 12 hands are very small sample to have a great picture of our opponent but I will hazard to saying that he is probably a fish as he has called so far every single "Holy" hand and because that his range may have everything really

He also got 50% of Fold to Cbet and when he doesn't fold on my cbet, I believe I can start, at least, cut down a bit his range but I m still think even a fish like that (and specially because that) would raise the top part of his full range as he starting go in some sort of ecstasy (specially if he see AA-KK must have an orgasm :f_biggrin: ), so


       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    78.63%  78.35%   0.28% { JsJc }
MP3    21.37%  21.09%   0.28% { TT-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

and he will continue after the flop like this:


Board: J♦6♦5♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    91.79%  91.79%   0.00% { JsJc }
MP3     8.21%   8.21%   0.00% { 99-44, AJs, A6s-A5s, KJs, K6s-K5s, QJs, Q6s-Q5s, J2s+, T6s-T5s, 98s, 96s-95s, 85s+, 74s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AJo, A6o-A5o, KJo, K6o-K5o, QJo, Q6o-Q5o, J2o+, T6o-T5o, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

Now, I know he will not fold anymore (accord the small stats I got but still can be an indication better then nothing imo) and I will bet for value my set, plus for value vs all the draws that has became more consistent in his range

In fact, by keeping his range as it was before he have gained same equity


Board: J♦6♦5♣ 7♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    86.86%  86.86%   0.00% { JsJc }
MP3    13.14%  13.14%   0.00% { 99-44, AJs, A6s-A5s, KJs, K6s-K5s, QJs, Q6s-Q5s, J2s+, T6s-T5s, 98s, 96s-95s, 85s+, 74s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AJo, A6o-A5o, KJo, K6o-K5o, QJo, Q6o-Q5o, J2o+, T6o-T5o, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

On the River, it is true that all his draws have done "Bingo" but he has an AF of 6 at River and again just by keeping the same range (even if in reality now we can operate a bit of his range but let assume that his raise may come from his value as his air)


Board: J♦6♦5♣ 7♥ 3♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    76.96%  76.96%   0.00% { JsJc }
MP3    23.04%  23.04%   0.00% { 99-44, AJs, A6s-A5s, KJs, K6s-K5s, QJs, Q6s-Q5s, J2s+, T6s-T5s, 98s, 96s-95s, 85s+, 74s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AJo, A6o-A5o, KJo, K6o-K5o, QJo, Q6o-Q5o, J2o+, T6o-T5o, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

So, Im not too sure if such element is capable of bluffing or play like that a TP other then the nutz all the time as we know, from the begin he got a lot of fours as hands like 89 etc.

But, as I planned vs such player to extract three streets of value vs his range and because now I have pot odds of about 5:1 with 16% of Equity needed

The question is, do I still have at least still 16% of Equity vs villain?

Thanks! :f_smile:


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4 replies
VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

I hope you have called the river raise. Vs. such fish I'm pushing river myself.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

You either bet somthing small - 1/2, or you push.


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kiromanAAKK
Joined: 08.10.2009

Just for the sake of your effort in helping me here are the

Results:

Spoiler

$3.93 pot ($0.26 rake)
Final Board: 6 5 J 7 3
Hero mucked J J and lost (-$1.95 net)
CO showed Q 4 and won $3.67 ($1.72 net)

keeping as spoiler in case somebody-else would like give a look at the hand

Thanks! :f_smile:


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yep he be a fish that rather play bingo then poker but i do think if he dont bingo the river he is calling any bet so i would either shove for max value or check call


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