Hi guys,
In my 10 tips to get out of the micros video series I mention in tip 8 to "overfold vs aggresion". The following hand is a good example, it was posted by WilliamBoo, thanks to him for posting and to you guys for participating.
Originally posted by WilliamBoo
Hi, should i call or fold this hand?
Villain seems to be somewhat passive given his wwsf of 39 in 2k hands. But he has a semi wide calling range in BB against a steal form the BU (he is folding 74% and restealing only 3%), and he's raising a fairly amount of flops (15%) and turns (31%).
His bet river i think is in the std side (25%).
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.SB: $44.37 (177.5 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
MP1: $32.09 (128.4 bb)
MP2: $88.34 (353.4 bb)
MP3: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
CO: $23.01 (92 bb)
Hero (BTN): $26.45 (105.8 bb)Preflop: Hero is BTN with A
5
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, SB folds, BB calls $0.25Flop: ($1.10) A
5
BB checks, Hero bets $0.69, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.81Turn: ($6.10) Q
(2 players)
BB bets $4.25, Hero calls $4.25River: ($14.60) 7
BB bets $10, Hero ?
"Pat Mallard" has some advice for you guys:
I think in this case it is that simple. We have a player 16/11. This is not common nowadays. He is SUPER tight. WillainBoo seems to imply that his preflop range is not that tight, but we can see villain folds BBvBU 74%, which is huge. Also, he is playing WWSF 39%, very very passive, I'd discount completely that raise cbet stat (sample is not huge either, specially for someone so tight pre flop).
Against such a rock player we should play super straight forward. Flop it's fine to call since we still are ahead against A4s, maybe 54s and from time to time some sort of draw. We could also say that it is possible for this player to be raising flop with a hand like AQ (given he does not call much and has that raise %)
Turn we already are in big trouble, I think it's very possible that villain doesn't value bet A4 anymore and it's now less likely for a nit player to continue semi-bluffing with a draw. Still, the call is somewhat close and probably not terrible.
Now river, in my opinion we can say with certainty that this player is very close to having zero bluffs in his range. Even if villain is playing like this his 2 combos of A4s, we're still in a quite bleak situation. And saying that he does have A4 in his range is quite optimistic IMO, you would be surprised about what type of "value hands" nits decide to not value bet. So, although we are loosing to only 4-6 combos in villains range, we should be confidant that we will loose to those hands (even with our blocker) almost always.
Do you guys also have this idea, that nits beside not bluffing also don't value bet thinly enough? Post some examples if you like,
