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25 NL 3b Pot vs Lag

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AngieSenpai
Joined: 05.06.2015

Hey guys,

so me and another player from our channel had a pretty long discussion about this hand.

Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $25.77 (103.1 bb)
BB: $49.79 (199.2 bb)
UTG: $10.35 (41.4 bb)
MP: $54.04 (216.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $29.75 (119 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q A
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, MP calls $1.25

Flop: ($4.35) 5 8 A (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $2.61, MP calls $2.61

Turn: ($9.57) K (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($9.57) 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $2.87, MP raises to $11, Hero ???

V. is playing 41/30, Folding 38% vs 3bets and has an AF of 1,6 on 1,4k hands.

In our discussion we disagreed about pretty much everything :f_biggrin:
So we turn to you, in hope you can enlighten us.

I'll write down my own thoughts to the hand and then add the thoughts of my mate.

Preflop I'm 3b for value preflop.

Flop sizing is pretty small. Could probably be a bit bigger since we got an FD on Board and a possible SD with 67s. We got some draws calling (I don't see to many of them, mb QsJs JsTs Ts9s) and some worse hands. QQ,JJ,TT,99 will most likely peel once AK,AQ,AJ will aswell.

Turn I'd barrel any blank, since worse hands will have an easier time continuing, the Ks tho is pretty nasty. Altho there isn't much changing vs AK, were suddenly behind vs the Flushdraws and the part of V. range which we are ahead off while most likely fold vs a barrel. So I decide to cb the Turn to keep his range wide and mb induce some bluffs on the river or place a small vbet myself which he can hero off

River blanks. I decide to vbet on the smaller side and V. smacks me right in the face.

On the first look this is a clear bet / fold.
But since our Hand is basically faceup (made hand with SD Value, not strong enough to bet bet bet) we're suddenly in a spot were we can't bet / fold everytime.

a) V. is repping extremely thin. My assumption would be that AK, sets and most of the time even the flushes in his range lead the river to get Value from my Ax, Kx hands which leaves us with a very few combos of slowplayed nutz. I doubt one would c/r that big with just a 2 pair on this Board.

b) the raisesize is huge. Normal valueraise on this river would've been around 6.5-8$. Just adds to my suspicion, since i doubt hes balanced in this spot :)

So since our range is vulnerable to a river raise in this spot I think I will have to call him a portion of the time. Since AQo here is basically the top of my bluffcatching range and I'm not getting beaten by other Ax I decide to call him off.

What do you guys think? :)


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3 replies
Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

i play a ton of value hands like mp did. that said i probably end up calling too but my thoughts are that a good LAG will mostly have value in this spot


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AngieSenpai
Joined: 05.06.2015

Mates opinion:

Okay, so villain plays 41/30 and folds 38% to 3bets in total.
First I'd like to estimate his continueing range pre-flop.

A reasonable open-range for this player would probably be somewhere around 20% from MP.
Then facing a 3-bet out of position MPvsCO he continues probably less than 62% and some part of it are 4bets.

We have to start somewhere and we don't want to be too optimistic, so let's assume that he continues 40% of the time by calling.
So given that he continues (20*0.4) is 8%-range, which looks reasonable for this player-type.

That would be: QQ-77, AQs-ATs, KJs+, QJs, AQo-ATo, KQo which again looks reasonable accurate to me.
Given the small 3-bet pre-flop he could be slightly wider, on the other side our assumptions could be off slightly which would make him slightly tighter.
He might 4bet QQ, maybe JJ, we obviously can't be 100% sure but I think it's an okay estimate.

Now on the flop, villain checks and we bet. We mainly bet for value against weaker Ax and draws and his pocket-pairs might want to continue, especially if they have a spade in it.
I would make it slightly bigger though; more like $3 - $3,25.

If we assume that he calls with a set of 8s, weaker Ax, flushdraws and PP with a backdoor then he continues: 53 out of 108 combo's.

On the turn, hero decides to check-back and I don't like a check here if we consider villains range. He has worse Ax and flush-draws and has better hands that probably want to check-raise.
So in my opinion the best play here would be to bet/fold; we get value from ATs/AJs/ATo/AJo and his pocket-pairs that called the flop with a spade in it. And if villain decides to checkraise we're
probably beat most of the time.

So I feel like it's better to barrel the turn for value/protection from AT/AJ and flushdraws. If villain does have a set or a flush he will probably x/r turn or x/c turn and lead river and we can just fold.
On the river we can decide between valuebetting small and folding to a raise or checking back, whereas the first option is probably slightly more +EV.

As played, we just bet/fold river.


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VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

He might have also some suited connectors preflop. After checking back turn, we should check back river imo. With that sizing you could only induce bluffs. But anyway he has many strong hands otr.
I preffer betting turn where we could get more calls from hands like AT, AJ especially with J or T :spade:.


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