NL20 SH Speed AA, Tought Turn Spot

I would make the flop cbet 1/2.

There's not a lot of made flushes he can have really, unless you think he'd be cold calling 3bets with all suited aces?

Small sample, but he's on the tight-passive side. I'd say something like AsX or KxQs is more likely than a made flush or a straight here. Not sure if he'd shove a hand like 54 or 77 on that turn?

I'm a Payoff Wizard who can never fold a hand, though.

As BTN is the cold caller of the 3bet preflop, he can have a made flush here.

Originally posted by nitrol
As BTN is the cold caller of the 3bet preflop, he can have a made flush here.

Do you think a tight/passive player is cold calling 3bets with a player to act behind holding Ts9s or As3s? I'd say AQ/AJ/AT of spades is a generous range.

Looks like a set/flush to me.
Too bad we don't know his postflop tendencies.

Fold or call otr, doesnt matter it's close.

I think mistake was somwhere else.

(quick edit)

Sorry, i didnt saw it's 6-handed. Take my advice with a big grain of salt.

Originally posted by MJPerry

Originally posted by nitrol
As BTN is the cold caller of the 3bet preflop, he can have a made flush here.

Do you think a tight/passive player is cold calling 3bets with a player to act behind holding Ts9s or As3s? I'd say AQ/AJ/AT of spades is a generous range.

It is 33 hand sample. ANd , yes, I think he will be calling all sorts of suited combinations of cards.

I'm aware. I literally said "Small sample, but he's on the tight-passive side."

The hand sample is all we have to work with, so of course we're going to derive assumptions from it. I think you're treating him like an 82/3 rather than a 22/3. Players with a 22 VPIP aren't generally cold-calling 3bets all that wide.

Players that call and have big gap between VPIP and PFR will generally call even with suited two gappers here. They are calling and hoping to see a flop and hit something.
Your range is for more thinking player, but they do not have such stats.

I think if he was the type to see a raise and a re-raise ahead of him, look down at 9s7s and then click the call button he would have folded fewer than 26 hands in his time at the tables.

I see your point, but today the same type of guy showed T8s... so I believe my eyes better.

I suppose even if I'm right about his preflop range here it still makes the turn a fold since he's also unlikely to have KxQs etc.

AsQx is the most likely hand we beat I imagine. We are getting a great price, too.

Following the Balluga Whale Theorem we should fold turn.