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[NL25] Check behind with "2nd" nuts on the river??

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Volrath89
Joined: 23.07.2008

I don't have stats on the villain, except that I know he is a reg (because he can't be found with right click -> find player and because he has played 6/0 on 20 hands)

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($27.08)
BB ($43.55)
Hero ($28.25)
UTG+1 ($27.69)
UTG+2 ($23.12)
MP1 ($25)
CO ($25)
BTN ($28.17)

Dealt to Hero 8♠ 8♥

Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.50

FLOP ($1.60) 8♦ 4♣ 4♦

BB checks, Hero bets $1.01, BB calls $1.01

TURN ($3.62) 8♦ 4♣ 4♦ 6♦

BB checks, Hero bets $2.30, BB calls $2.30

RIVER ($8.22) 8♦ 4♣ 4♦ 6♦ K♦

BB checks, Hero ???

What worse can call a river bet?
Bear in mind than this is FullRing and it's not rare if he cold called with KK or AA. So KK and 44 are in his range.

So the only worse hands that would probably call a river bet are 66 and A♦X ... But why would a nit cold call preflop with suited aces? And why would a nit call a cbet from UTG in that flop with 66?

I'm not so sure if he would call a river bet with 99-QQ that have a diamond... MAYBE with QxQ:diamond: but I really doubt with anything lower.

For all this reasons I thought a lot about checking behind that river... if he has 99-QQ the four diamonds are going to scare him anyway... so... I don't know!

Do you think is it ok to bet/fold?


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2 replies
FrozenElf
Joined: 06.07.2015

my dad used to play poker he had that turned off too and he was terrible player I would open shove that river, but I would bet 30% 30% shove to make sure they called on FD's, the fact that he could kk or 44 is irrelivent because its variance you think he would fold that other way round nowway there all in you just lose out vs flush's and 4x hands


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

x behind is terrible, I would bet big OTR, IMO AdQx/AdKx/66 can be in his range and I would have a lot more doubts If he has called pre w KK. If he x/shoves OTR you still have to call given the pot odds.
Board: 8♦4♣4♦ 6♦ K♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    42.86%  42.86%   0.00% { 8h8s }
MP3    57.14%  57.14%   0.00% { KK, 66, 44 }


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