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KQ call fold?

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Grisuuu
Joined: 23.04.2014

Hy Guys

it was an 888 MTT midstage before the Money, so i can use the Chip-EV calculation?
Stats CO Vpip 19 Pfr 13 127 Hands
SB vpip 18 pfr 13 3bet 16 over 62 Hands

should i call or fold in this spot (how i know i take Potodds (36% Equity) vs Range of Opponent?) and what Ranges can i estimate for my Opponents?

can i use icmmizer or SNG wiz for that?
How to i solve this rightly?

thx Tony

$100/$200 No Limit Holdem
888
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
Stacks:
UTG ($7,063) 35bb
UTG+1 ($6,575) 33bb
MP1 Hero ($14,495) 72bb
MP2 ($4,985) 25bb
CO ($5,779) 29bb
BTN ($4,215) 21bb
SB ($3,570) 18bb
BB ($1,967) 10bb
Pre-Flop: (300, 8 players) Hero is MP1 Q♠ K♣

2 folds, Hero raises to $400, 1 fold, CO calls $400, 1 fold, SB raises to $3,545, 1 fold, Hero folds, CO folds
Final Pot: $4,745
SB wins $4,745 (net +$1,200)
Hero lost $400
CO lost $400


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6 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I moved this hand to the hand discussion board as well.

I expect the SB isn’t 3 bet shove to light in a spot like this based on his stats and his 3bet stats are not reliable enough to make decisions with it.

Off course you can use icmizer, SNG wizard or Holdem Resources Calculator (HRC) for spots like this. I use HRC a lot for spots like this and you need to use it in Cev mode.

I expect the CO will defend with a lot of mid pocket pairs like 22-99 and broadways like KQ-KT and QJ. I expect the rest he will fold or 3bet shove.
SB will shove I think with approximately 88+, ATs+, AJo+ KQo and KJs+.
Against this range you’re behind and you need to count the CO in it as well, but I expect he will fold a lot if you shove here. Against the SB range you have 36% equity:
Equity Win Draw
MP1 35.98% 30.92% 5.07% { KcQs }
SB 64.02% 58.95% 5.07% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

If we expect that the CO will always fold you get a total pot of 7.690 (400(own investment)+200(BB)+400(CO)+ 3.545(SB+push)+3.145 (You need to call)). You need to call 3.145. So you need 40,9% equity against the SB. So a fold is best if he will shoves like that.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Grisuuu
Joined: 23.04.2014

Thx a lot SDK!

how can i learn to think what these guys Ranges have? i mean how can i make accurate Assumptions, put myself in their shoes? i really got Problems with that, to estimate correct Ranges, should i try to do that when i play or when i analyze a Hand afterwards?

HRC (i not got) does provide Nash approximations for raise/3bet Spots a good Point to start from, Icmmizer does not provide this and giving Opponents very tight Ranges anyway, i could make exploitable Ranges if i could put my Opponents on right Ranges -> but not so easy for me on 3bet/reshove Spots. Push/Fold is not so Problem i first look if he is good or bad Player good Player i can estimate he shoves something like Nashrange, Bad Player i mostly put on the tighter side.

Can u give me any Hints?

thx Tony


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Just thinking. Hopefully there aren’t antes in this situation. Otherwise you can call a little bit looser.

It’s always a little bit guessing what kind of ranges in this case the SB will shove, because it’s not likely he will push exact the same range what a tool like HRC or icmizer will recommend. I expect a average player will shove most likely tighter than the Nash ranges.

I would try to give a villain ranges at the moment you get in a spot like this. Off course you don’t have much time to make a calculation, but if you deal with a loose player you can give him a looser range than if you deal with a tight player. Afterwards you can see if you made the right call against the range you gave him.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Grisuuu
Joined: 23.04.2014

there were Antes also here, no handreplayer supports 888 format (counting Ante) its annoying.
Unfortunately i do not know the Nashranges for the 3bet/Spots but i will try to give the Players a Range while playing it mostly consists on Pocketpairs, Ax Hands, Broadways or Sc something like that some looser some tighter. I can only adjust in the 6max SNG against the Regular when i do see a Hand which is outside my Thinking. In the Mtt is Problem i do not know the Player but will try as u said be on the tighter Side, one Thing i think is in the Mtt the People reshove looser as an SNG because of the lower Icm Tax.

thank u SDK u helped me alot

Cheers Tony


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

That’s true for sure that people shove a lot wider in MTT’s than in 6 max SNG’s without the ICM tax in play, but I expect they still push to tight with this in mind.


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Grisuuu
Joined: 23.04.2014

thx

btw u doing a great Job here :f_thumbsup:

Cheers Tony


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