t2p otr vs fish shove

When he donks flop it looks like he has something. QQ is not very likely, also river 6 reduces the probability of 66. There is no possible straights or flushes. If he is a fish I believe he can do this with an overpair which he didn't 3bet for some reason, AQ, lower 2 pair and sets. I think we could raise OTT. As played I might call OTR.

Raising the turn would be an option, imo, but I think that calling is also fine. When we don't have any info on him, I would also fold the river. He is usually not bluffing there and the question is which value hands he is doing this with. Sets, fullhouses, trips and maybe even quads are all possible, so I would rather assume that he has those than something like KK+, KQ or AQ.

The question is: Is he going to play like this AQ/KQ/QJ and I think he can.

Originally posted by nitrol
The question is: Is he going to play like this AQ/KQ/QJ and I think he can.

For me, the question is does he have AQ, KQ, QJ, KK+ and random bluffs in 42% of cases when he is doing this. Because if he does, then we have a profitable call. I wouldn't assume for an unknown guy that this is the case.

AQ, KQ, QJ, KK+ is 36 combos. Say only half the time the villain will play these hands in this way so call it 18 combos and add 3 bluff combos. So we beat 21 combos. {QQ, TT, 66, 33} is only 6 combos plus say 2 combos for random 6s. Even if we think there's only a 25% chance that the villain can do this with TP or OP, we are still ahead. So I think it should be a call. Essentially, I like vuciitis' original plan of calling the turn with the intention of calling a further bet OTR and I don't think the size of villain's river bet makes much difference (after all with 66 we would expect him to bet smaller to get more calls).

splitting that river decision in combos made me reallize that my hand is way stronger as it seemed at first.
tnx everyone

Calling turn is good, raising is not bad either, but I like to call to keep many weaker hands in his range and let him bluff with his air.

OTR I would fold, looks mostly FH.

My thoughts on this:

I think you played this correctly. If you look at his stats (although very small sample size), villain is loose/passive pre-flop, but then amps up aggression post flop. My gut feeling is that this guy limps/calls a lot of hands and aggressively bets all of his draws and weak pairs (along with his strong hands too). On that flop, the only draw he could have is 45, maybe 57 and 24. With 22 VPIP, I think we can eliminate 24 and keep 45s, and 57s. Since villain donks on the flop, I'm inclined to put him on a range of Qx, 22+, 45o, 45s, 57s, 67o, 67s, A6s, and A3s. I think we have him beat more often than not.

I like the Turn call as well. Let the guy keep tossing money to you. Your two pair is very strong, and it's likely villain will slow down considerably if you raise him here. You want to extract maximum value, and I think just calling the Turn is best for that.

The River shove is tough because it polarizes his range. He either has you beat or it's a total whiff. But let's look at this from villain's point of view. You are the pre-flop raiser and you just call on a flop that is mostly dry. He probably puts you on a pocket pair or a Q, but not a strong Q since AQ and KQ are probably raising his donk bet. He fires again on the Turn hoping to represent a better Queen and hoping you fold your weaker Queen. But you still haven't folded and you haven't raised, so I bet villain still thinks you have a marginal hand and a River shove ought to do the trick in getting you to fold. Now the problem is that if Villain has a 6 here, I still think he shoves because it looks like a bluff since it'd be tough to put him on a 6.

If this were me and only had like 20 seconds to make a decision, I think I'm making a crying call. But I think it's very close to being a fold too.