NL16 zoom 99

You could've taken a lead on the flop by x/r since the board provided lot of draws

Yeah, it seems you don´t have the odds to call here. He could have AA,KK,55, AK and QT as Value, and against that range, you dont have the odds to call. Maybe he has some bluffs with 76cc-98cc. But then it should be an breakevencall. But if people rarely bluff in this spot, than a fold is the best play.

BTW, do you have any c/R on this Flop?

We could also donk the flop with the set multi-way. As played, I like check/raising the flop or at least the turn. As played, river is very tough. I think we can fold without specific reads.

I never fold there, you rep weak, with your set to induce bets. It is true that in his range he has a lot of value bets and very few bluffs. for probably 95% of cases it is for value and he does think he has you beat.

you need 56% equity

this is the range I would put him on with his bet size I have added 3 combos of bluffs + every 2 pairs and sets that could have made it to the river IMO

Board: 9♠K♣5♣ J♦ A♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    75.68%  75.68%   0.00% { 9d9h }
MP3    24.32%  24.32%   0.00% { KK+, JJ, 55, AKs, KJs, K9s, K5s, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, AKo, KJo }

over 75% equity so a very easy call IMO ...

And even with removing these 3 combos of bluff you are still over 73% equity.

Board: 9♠K♣5♣ J♦ A♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    73.53%  73.53%   0.00% { 9d9h }
MP3    26.47%  26.47%   0.00% { KK+, JJ, 55, AKs, KJs, K9s, K5s, Ac9c, AKo, KJo }

Vs most oppoents I would x/r something like JcTc/QcJc/QcTc/Tc9 and 99/55/K9s, but vs IMO better regs I like to x/c these hands on such board or donk sometimes if it's mw as Alleen86 suggested, because good regs play better vs x/r, from what I have seen they fold they marginal holdings and don't make a lot of mistakes in these spots. But when you call with all these hands, they tend to bluff too much or bluff too less.

Thazar, I don't think he would overb shove river for value with hands like K5s/K9s/KJ/AcJc/Ac9c, this statement comes from population reads. You forgot to add QT, which is the most expected hand he can have, when he makes such move.

Originally posted by LuckyManFromLT
Vs most oppoents I would x/r something like JcTc/QcJc/QcTc/Tc9 and 99/55/K9s, but vs IMO better regs I like to x/c these hands on such board or donk sometimes if it's mw as Alleen86 suggested, because good regs play better vs x/r, from what I have seen they fold they marginal holdings and don't make a lot of mistakes in these spots. But when you call with all these hands, they tend to bluff too much or bluff too less.

Thazar, I don't think he would overb shove river for value with hands like K5s/K9s/KJ/AcJc/Ac9c, this statement comes from population reads. You forgot to add QT, which is the most expected hand he can have, when he makes such move.

You c/c flop, turn and check the river, you do look weak. I did not put QT OTF because he just has a GS but yes ... why do you check the 3 streets? you think you are behind with a set? If I check there it is to induce, and hopefully induce as big a bet as possible. Yes i will be behind sometimes but I have even seen some pure bluffs in this spot. and by pure bluff I mean something like 74o.

OTF I just x/c, because I don't have many bluffs to x/r on this board.

You do not have many bluffs but you still have some. Even if you have 0 bluffs here, then I assume - its because the people do not fold, that does not mean you cannot exploit them by raising.

You already exploit by bluffing less, so why not exploit even more by raising flop?

imo

Man, this is a very common mistake. PLayer calls preflop, hits his set and never builds up the pot.
We should be raising andtrying to get it in here.