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AA, BU vs CO, x/r OTF

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Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

Usually I'm an advocate for folding OP to a x/r, but it seems unlikely villain can have hit this flop, so I thought he probably had a FD, hence the huge reraise (he would need 41% equity to call here; A♥K♥ gives him 38%).

However, I now think this was probably a mistake, because I'm betting heavily on TT not being in villain's PF calling range. He has 19% PFR from CO, 33% C3B and 0% 4B, although as usual we're constrained by the sample size: I imagine he at least 4-bets {KK+}. His PF range here could be something like {QQ-88, AQo+, AQs-ATs, KQs}, and my line looks bad.

What do you think?

Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players

SB: $7.65 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 16, 3B: 3, AF: 1.0, Hands: 100
BB: $16.23 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 1.4, Hands: 201
UTG: $6.80 - VPIP: 8, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 37
UTG+1: $20.84 - VPIP: 40, PFR: 21, 3B: 0, AF: 5.4, Hands: 73
MP: $10.15 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 0.8, Hands: 139
CO: $12.63 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 15, 3B: 3, AF: 2.1, Hands: 195
Hero (BTN): $15.42 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 2.9, Hands: 13465

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A :club: A :spade:
3 folds, CO raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.50, 2 folds, CO calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.15) 5 :heart: T :spade: 2 :heart: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.55, CO raises to $1.65, Hero raises to $14.92, CO folds

Final Pot: $4.45
Hero wins $4.25
(Rake: $0.20)


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8 replies
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Definitely bigger pre (considering opponent's open, much bigger). Donno why you've jamed it without proper info


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

I would b/c OTF, I think you will polarize yourself vs TT with your jam most of the time


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

If villain is not folding much, you should 3 bet bigger, he ain't foldingand you get much value.
Jamming is not ok, we will isolate ourselves vs hands that beat us or have enough equity vs us.


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NothingIsForSho
Joined: 01.06.2014

CO probably just had air


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CPallo
Joined: 12.04.2012

Hi,

The key mistake here was made pre-flop - if you make it that small, he can still most-likely have any pocker pair in his range, as well as some flush-draws/combo-draw. Bigger 3-bet pre-flop and you make autoprofit if guys keep calling and missing their PP OOP.

As played, bet/call flop and re-evaluate turn would be the most solid option. I think you are isolating yourself against better hands with this move, if the guy isn't an aggressive yet calling player


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Failing to raise one cent or two bigger preflop is the small mistake.

The HUGE mistake is to try to figure out what he is holding ("he has an FD and I am so sure about it that I'll make a 5x raise" (why?)) and to make a raise that no sensible FD in the universe will call. I don't know from where you got those numbers (41% and 38%) by the way. Think ranges, ranges, ranges, never ever particular hands. The play is probably the worst conceivable. Stepping down altogether and entering the absolute beginners level (I have AA therefore I call/raise reasonably) is better than these "putting opponent on a hand" attempts.

Sorry for being blunt.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

As said above, 3bet bigger and bet call flop.


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MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011

3bet sizing is fine IF you have a wide, merged 3bet range and pick your targets carefully.

Essentially I agree with Yohan.


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