HI guys am at work now but couldn't stop thinking about this hand so I decided to write it out for you, as I don't have the hand history with me right now.
Thanks in advance for answering and sharing your ideas.
Preflop: single raised pot UTG opens, MP calls, fold, I call on button, sb and bb fold.
Flop was Ts2sTc
My hand was AJT5ss and I was last to act.
Original Cbettor checked OOP, then middle guy with 35% range (he calls any pfr with 75% of his original vpip of 47% but only had 40 hands on him) donks 3/4 pot, and now it is up to me. I know that the original 3bettor probably doesn't have much, and he will probably fold
regardless of whether I call or raise. Folding here is out of the question with top trips top kicker, and all kickers higher than the other rank on the board (2). However, I am 120bb deep effetively, and raising here might lead to a reraise which I would not necessarily be too excited about, or I get a call and then a random rank x will show up on the turn and if it is not a AJor5 I would not know what to do.
Somewhat results oriented, all the last couple times I got it in on flop with top trips top kicker(+ live kickers) I still got it in behind, so I was hesitant to get it in here partly because of that.
So I call. Turn is a 9 which I do not consider to be a good card, but then again villain's range is still kind of wide and not sure if the 9 helped him or not (vs tighter player I would have disliked the 9 even more).
At this moment I gather I am up against a 35% range here including a T or 22 (some of these guys truly setmine with any PP).
So here I put him on a mix of any T, and 22 and vs this range in Equilab omaha, I see the odds go 56% on flop to 45% on turn to 31% on river for my hand.
Anyways he bets half pot on turn, and I call. I stay unimproved with the 9c, now he bets half pot again on river after the 6d hits. I need to have the best hand here 25% to make the call correct, which doesn't sound like a lot but still I hav a hard time calling. Call here with "unimproved" top trips top kicker as played or fold? Am I laying down the best hand here too often? Should I have raised flop with 120bb effective stack and isolate vs stronger hands or hope villain will overplay his trips with lower kicker perhaps? If I raise and he goes all
that is not good news imo but even if I raise and he only flats and I miss turn, what do I do then, keep firing seems like an overplay to me? Definitely
don't want to turn my trips into a huge overplay and take myself to valuetown. I was thinking if I hit my hand/kicker I can still extract value on later streets.
