[Zoom] 3-bet pot w/ 98s

I think that both is fine, but feel like calling is better. Considering his sizes, I don't think he is very strong there. I would expect strong hands to bet bigger. So, I would just call and let him bluff or hit TP on the river (in case he doesn't have QQ+ allready). I don't think he has a draw very often, so no much need to protect our trips. Then on the river, which is not a spade, I would raise if he bets because he might put us on a busted flushdraw and call with top pair / overpair.

Calling and raising are both fine. Alleen's reasoning why he should just call seems ok but I think if villain has overpair he will call a raise and a river bet and if he doesn't have it we won't get much value out of him OTR. Ofc villain could have AsKs andbet 2 streets with FD+overs and if he has overpair he might hit set so raising is definitely fine imo.

I expect villain to check/call a lot of blank rivers rivers with QQ+.

Calling turn and shipping river when checked to makes most sense. Don't see much need to raise the turn for reasons Alleen stated.

Alright. My reasoning for raising was that I mainly put him on overpairs. And if I just call and river is a spade, I'm prob getting little to no value on the river. People generally don't 3-bet bluff much at NL2 so I guess it's my fault for putting them on QQ+, AK. Especially without decent sample size on stats population reads are everything I've got. Thanks for answering, I appreciate your thought processes. Here's the whole hand.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 112.5 BB
SB: 106 BB (VPIP: 6.25, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
BB: 170.5 BB
UTG: 385.5 BB
MP: 104.5 BB
CO: 42 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♣ 9♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, SB raises to 8.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) 2♠ 9♠ 7♣
SB bets 8.5 BB, Hero calls 8.5 BB

Turn: (35 BB, 2 players) 9♥
SB bets 17 BB, Hero raises to 41 BB, SB raises to 89 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 48 BB

River: (213 BB, 2 players) T♥
Players agreed to run it twice.

River #2: (213 BB, 2 players) Q♣

SB shows Q♦ 9♦ (Three of a Kind, Nines)
Board #1 (Pre 68%, Flop 76%, Turn 86%)
(Full House, Nines full of Queens)
Board #2 (Pre 68%, Flop 76%, Turn 86%)

Hero shows 8♣ 9♣ (Three of a Kind, Nines)
Board #1 (Pre 32%, Flop 24%, Turn 14%)
(Three of a Kind, Nines)
Board #2 (Pre 32%, Flop 24%, Turn 14%)

SB wins 103 BB
SB wins 102.5 BB

H plays full stack poker: 100bb.
98s is a nice stealing hand with postflop potential. Suited connectors have huge implied odds.

Preflop
H raises from BTN with a normal size.
V 3B from SB 3.2x H's betsize (8bb/2.5bb).
Decision time
H has position in all of the next streets.
The effective stacksize is 106bb.
The pot is (1.5 +2.5 + 8= ) 12bb.
Against a range of 77+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,A9o+,KJo+,QJo,T9o H has an equity of 37%.
It costs H 6 bb to call. So H needs an equity of 33% (6/18 x100%).
Implied odds
If on the flop V Cbets 2/3pot H folds if he doesn't hit a monster. So H invests 6bb preflop to win a possible 30 (18bb preflop pot after H's call and 12bb from the Cbet). H needs an equity of (6/30 x100%= ) 20%. This means that if H knows almost certain that V will Cbets and his betsize is 2/3 of the pot he can call with any two hole cards!The effective stack is now (106 -0.5 -8= ) 97.5bb.
Stack-to-pot ratio
The pot on the flop will be 18bb when H calls.
The pot to stack ratio will be (97.5 /18= ) 5.4.
This means that H has to make a decision on whether or not he wants to go all in on the flop or turn.

Verdict IMO
H can call profitably with any two cards. However H will soon have to make an all in decision if he continues with the hand.

Flop
V Cbets OOP less than half the pot.
V's remaining stack is (106 -0.5 -8 -8.5= ) 89bb
The pot is now 26.5bb.
H doesn't have a monster: weak TP with a weak kicker. Against V's opening range H has an equity of 61%. A call is justified.

Turn
V Cbets OOP half the pot.
V's remaining stack is now (89 -17= ) 72bb.
The pot has swelled to (35 +17 = ) 52bb.
H has trips 9. Against V's opening range H has an equity of 92%. A call is justified.
Decision time
H has a monster. A raise as bluff is not needed.
1) Is a raise more profitable? In other words will V continue with this hand if H raises?
2) Does Hero's hand need protection? In other words can H's hand be outdrawn on the river?

I do not know the answer to the first question. But there a 2 spades on the board, H might get outflushed. I would raise here all in.

Preflop is ok. We can call the 3 bet and play IP.
On flop and turn villain makes close to 1/2 psb and this is completely normal for 3b pot. No sign of weakness there. Probably same size he will use with 88, TT, JJ...
On flop and turn I prefer calling and letting him bet.

call call call shove or shove river if checked too....

Originally posted by la55i
Calling and raising are both fine. Alleen's reasoning why he should just call seems ok but I think if villain has overpair he will call a raise and a river bet and if he doesn't have it we won't get much value out of him OTR. Ofc villain could have AsKs andbet 2 streets with FD+overs and if he has overpair he might hit set so raising is definitely fine imo.

But in case he just have broadways, we ll get nothing w our raise ott, and the reasoning of giving him a free card to possibly hit his pair seems nice for an extra value in this hand.

Hero had an way more looser range than u expected. Thats why I think calling is best ott.
His range is not just QQ+, AK, but full of broadways too.

Originally posted by wimNP
1) Is a raise more profitable? In other words will V continue with this hand if H raises?
2) Does Hero's hand need protection? In other words can H's hand be outdrawn on the river?

1) Not mutch of them, imo. Many overcards and weak draws ll fold.
2) Villain's range is wide until now, Hero can be outdrawn on the river but is not that likely... since villain can have flushdraw, but way more holdings too.

1. So what? What is the possibility they will hit a pair?
2. On turn we want him to pay, cause no draw is paynig on river when we miss.

All above has logic but still I prefer just calling and giving him a chance to bet with his whole range on river.