NL20 Speed - here there be spewiness: turning top pair into a bluff

This guy may have a high vpip but his pfr is normal. I am not calling here as this will create a perfect opportunity for the blinds to squeeze.
Better 3bet preflop.
On river he has some 7x - A7s, 97s, 87s, 76s.

This distance between vpip and pfr confirms that he is a not-great player.
Loved the thinking process on each street. Keep doing MJ ♠_thumbsup:

About the villain and his tendencies on betting, its +1 for the line u took. It seems well played imo.
Btw, congrats for thinking and DOING ur game plan. I see guys here that think about raising, but just dont have the balls to do it.

Originally posted by nitrol
This guy may have a high vpip but his pfr is normal. I am not calling here as this will create a perfect opportunity for the blinds to squeeze.

I didn't mention in OP but I'm fairly sure that the blinds were on the nittier side; I remember considering a 3bet and deciding a call was OK anyway.

Originally posted by nitrol
On river he has some 7x - A7s, 97s, 87s, 76s.

From MP with that nitty PFR I think A7s is the only realistic 7x hand he can have and that doesn't always barrel turn. Obv 77 never double barrels on Axx. Do you really think he bets 80% pot with 76s on the turn, too?

Maybe not. He is doing this with Ax.

Yeah I think his value range is mostly Ax especially with that blocker-style bet OTR but I rep 7x pretty hard so I think this is more +EV than calling.

If he actually had a seven probably would bet more on the river, imo.

i think preflop is a super easy fold, you are never going to be happy against such a tight range with high aggression frequencies, the fact that you called the turn shows that "he's bad" isn't good enough of a reason.
otr what 7x do you have? 67s A7s? seriously?

i like the balls so let's forget about what you rep for a moment. he's a bad player with a hand that he actually thinks is good enough to bet the river. i think he talks himself into calling his set for this price here.
idk he might also fold because he's bad, what's clear is that calling is definitely out of the question (so well done noticing that, though it's questionable if raising is better than folding), but should you ever have been in this spot? easy fold preflop.

Tomaloc, this can be either a fold or a 3bet pre depending on villain.

If hero thinks he has an edge posflop, I think he can call.

no i definitely don't like calling. how do you win? it's not going to be by hitting aces or floating flops randomly.
you say "outplay him", but what does that even mean? i have no idea i guess

Completely agree with Tomaloc.
That's why I suggested 3betting.
Call is worst as a thinking player on the blinds can squeeze a lot and we will have to fold.
Either fold or 3 bet bluff.

Originally posted by Tomaloc
otr what 7x do you have?

Originally posted by Tomaloc
i like the balls so let's forget about what you rep for a moment.

That's pretty much it! TBH I don't imagine he's thinking in ranges, more "there's four to a straight there I would hate to get raised". If he actually thinks it through, he knows I only ever have A7s or maybe sometimes 75s but I wasn't really worried about him piecing that together.

Originally posted by Tomaloc
he's a bad player with a hand that he actually thinks is good enough to bet the river. i think he talks himself into calling his set for this price here.

He has a generous seven set combos and a conservative 24 Ax combos.

Originally posted by MJPerry
That's pretty much it! TBH I don't imagine he's thinking in ranges, more "there's four to a straight there I would hate to get raised". If he actually thinks it through, he knows I only ever have A7s or maybe sometimes 75s but I wasn't really worried about him piecing that together.

yeah i can agree ♦ i think we should be conservative with his otr betting range though because he needs to be even more terrible to bet like AK AQ