Zoom AQ squeeze vs MP

Hi,

In the future, it would really help you and everyone replying if you put your opponent's stats here, as well as your own thought process about any street. That way it's easier to have a conversation about hand/process behind it, and it benefits you a lot more to open up your thoughts.

Flop bet is a bit smallish, I think you could go a bit bigger, depending on your villain.

Same goes with the turn. Against unknown, you could bet, or even check to keep weaker hands in, as he shouldn't have that many stronger hands to go with.

As played, river is a check and, depends on the villain, maybe a call or fold.

As you do not provide info- I will xc the river.

Why are you cbetting the flop? Why are you cbetting the turn? Which ranges do you give your opponents for calling preflop, and for calling a flop cbet on a flop where it's obvious you are holding AQ or AK?

It's also super player dependent on what to do. Vs. fish it may make sense to x/c the river vs busted draws. Vs. regs I'd probably check the flop because I don't expect a lot of calls from worse

Hi guys,
I was going for CO obviously. For small size MP seem from the tightish side so squeeze. Flop & Turns I made thin value bets vs both from AT-J + flush draws. On the river is very unfortunately for CO to have AK, but he could have sets + busted draws. So it's kind of close to go a head vs AT-AJ or to x/c but he doesn't actually have many busted draws at all.
Thanks

You do not have 3 streets of value with your hand here...

Hmm.. If you were cbetting for value, why then not bet the flop bigger and shove the turn vs. your mentioned range (AT/AJ/Draws) ? Gaybetting flop and turn and having just a leftover of a stack OTR seems odd.

Is MP a reg and CO a fish? Would be nice to know..

If MP's a reg, he shouldn't have many flushdraws in his range and probably folds anything but a set, occasionally AK, and AQ himself to a cbet. Thus, it may make sense to bet the turn normally and give up OTT if both players call.

I don't think you have 3 streets of value here. I would check OTR and depending on villain and bet size -> call or fold.

Shove river, he raises a set/2pair on the turn, probably also AK because you bet so small. Checking is a huge mistake because people are way too passive to bluff a busted FD unless you have that info, which you probably don't because you didn't post it. So if he has something like KdJd, JdTd, Td9d he just checks back when you check. He probably doesn't have T8s or 85s because why call preflop or on the flop?

I think you definitely have 3 streets.

I do not like bluffing the river with a shove. What weaker hands are calling?

Well, you where content to bet out of the flop and the turn, so unless you think that 7♣: really helped villain, I think you should bet again. If you're unsure, check.

Ok so maybe I was a bit too quick to judge this hand... IF we assume villain can get to the river with AK (does he?) and IF we assume he will never bluff a busted draw when we check (I believe that we can assume this quite safely from what I have seen on these limits, and OP hasn't given other information), then EV(xf) > EV(jam). If he does start bluffing busted FDs then this complicates things.

[edit] but I still think he will either shove pre with AK or at least he will shove turn (and he will also shove 66 and 99 on the turn!!), which greatly narrows his range to {AsQs, AcQc, AsJs, AcJc, KdJd, AsTs, AcTc, KdTd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, AsQh, AsQc, AcQh, AcQs, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs}, or something like that. Maybe he also has some TT, JJ in there also, possibly also QQ.

I do not like putting my whole stack at danger with just TP here...

just post stats/reads on villain...

Originally posted by nitrol
I do not like putting my whole stack at danger with just TP here...

What do you think is his range for getting to the river, and what do you think he will fold if you shove?

Also it isn't your whole stack, it is $13.18. If you make him fold you win $42.98. If you think he folds even AJ or AQ here then it can't be THAT bad - with this investment you need 23.5% FE for it to be a break-even shove. If he is folding AJ/AQ to a shove you have way more FE, closer to 70%. The bigger question here is if we check, will he ever shove with a busted FD? He needs to shove like 3 combos as a bluff as well as his 8 AK combos in order for a x/c to be more profitable than a x/f. With the range I gave he only has like 6 possible bluff combos.

Shoving imo is horrible here. I only see 1 hand you can beat in his value range. Which he probably will fold to a river bet. Also making the assumption people never bluff busted fd's is just wrong. Given the SPR i would check/call river. He might even get overconfident with his AJ hands and bet.

Originally posted by DrDunne

Originally posted by nitrol
I do not like putting my whole stack at danger with just TP here...

What do you think is his range for getting to the river, and what do you think he will fold if you shove?

Also it isn't your whole stack, it is $13.18. If you make him fold you win $42.98. If you think he folds even AJ or AQ here then it can't be THAT bad - with this investment you need 23.5% FE for it to be a break-even shove. If he is folding AJ/AQ to a shove you have way more FE, closer to 70%. The bigger question here is if we check, will he ever shove with a busted FD? He needs to shove like 3 combos as a bluff as well as his 8 AK combos in order for a x/c to be more profitable than a x/f. With the range I gave he only has like 6 possible bluff combos.

My English is not so good but still shove for me is to put all my stack in. Both villain and hero are 100bb deep and do not like to shove here. With this hand we can win small to average pot and lose big one. I prefer playing small and passive and I do not like to push with hand that will make fold only worse hands.

Originally posted by Pistoleroo
Shoving imo is horrible here. I only see 1 hand you can beat in his value range. Which he probably will fold to a river bet. Also making the assumption people never bluff busted fd's is just wrong. Given the SPR i would check/call river. He might even get overconfident with his AJ hands and bet.

So you truly think that when you 3bet from the BB and fire 2 on an A-high flop into 2 players that your opponent will try to bluff you off of TP with a busted FD? Because you basically have TP and the occasional busted FD yourself. Which he blocks when he has it himself. I stand by the default assumption that (at least without having seen it before) people are too passive to bluff busted draws in general and especially in this situation. Too many times I have seen people checking back T-high busted FDs because they don't even think about bluffing.

I agree with a check but I'm not sure if it is a check/call or a check/fold because we have no information. As a default I don't mind check/fold. Shoving is +EV, just not the highest EV - that's why I don't think shoving is "horrible". Check/calling with 0% equity is horrible and that is what happens if villain checks back with his busted draws.

your thinking into this hand is ok .... x/call almost vs any size on river.

X-F for me without a read that says the villain would 4B/broke with AK.

Standard villain is more likely to have called 3 with AK here and will probably try for a 3rd street when you X to him. Hard to imagine the villain having much else in his range for an open / callsqueeze and still be with you on that board OTR. AJs and KdQd are about all you beat IMO, and AJ should have released OTT, while I'd have folded KQs preflop.

Some villains might be splitting with you also at this point. That's probably your best result OTR - and calling hoping for splits is a losing game.

As the villain here I only have AK (would fold AQs to the squeeze unless your squeeze is wide), and I would put you all-in to a check OTR.