T7s small river bluff

Your story is inconsistent. You will not xb turn of you have it.

Originally posted by nitrol
Your story is inconsistent. You will not xb turn of you have it.

I'm not trying to rep something like A♦: like I said. I would play small flushes like this almost always on this spot. Like 6:8d:/T♦:J/cbet with small in it. I would bet my hands like A♦:J,K♦:J,A♦:x etc. on the turn

Originally posted by marsa08
I can't have A♦:/K♦: because I did not bet on the turn.
.

Like I said

Nice analysis, so what would villain's VBF (very best fold) be? What is the absolute strongest hand villain would fold with a half pot-sized bet OTR after checking the turn from Hero?

A question I am now asking myself is: Will villain fold any flush in this case (bet flop, x turn, 1/2 bet river)?
As played, I think we shouldn't bet anymore with a call from villain OTF on a draw-heavy board.

Originally posted by Hesticus
Nice analysis, so what would villain's VBF (very best fold) be? What is the absolute strongest hand villain would fold with a half pot-sized bet OTR after checking the turn from Hero?

A question I am now asking myself is: Will villain fold any flush in this case (bet flop, x turn, 1/2 bet river)?
As played, I think we shouldn't bet anymore with a call from villain OTF on a draw-heavy board.

I think that the strongest hand that villain will fold is JQ/TJ/KJ with no diamond.

I'm not trying to make villain fold any flushes with this bet that I made otr. Im trying to make him fold his PPs and Jx.

Also villain should not have many 2pair combos on this flop texture. He should not have any sets since they would raise otf(only 44 or 99 if they hit their 2 outs).

So villains range otr is small flushes,Jx and some PPs. So he should fold most of the time?

As you showed weakness on turn, now no diamond is folding. All weak diamonds would like to check you through.
You say " I have a weak flush" and he has a weak flush...

In fact, I am not sure you represent weak flush too... but that's my imo...

With a call OTF and the 'wetness' of the board increasing villain would and should not fold most of the time unfortunately. This was for me painfully clear unfortunately as well

Your line in this 4 flush board is quite polarized. I have seen very often people bluff like this with air or bet their small draws. Villain will not fold any of his draws here and he might find a call even with his pairs.

Villain calls with any ;

Combos that call our bet(these have a diamond in them or a set that hit otr/turn): (3x QJ,2xTJ,2xTT,3x99,3x88,2x77,3x55,3x44,3x99,3x22) + lets add AJ with no diamond(9combos) A♦:+K♦: would bet the river so I don't count them. --> Total of 36 combos

Combos that fold to our bet(combos with no diamond) : (9xKJ,9xQJ,6xTJ,1xTT,1x77,3x88,3x55,3x22) -> total of 35 combos

Villain needs to fold 33% for our bet to be brake even and he folds: 35/71= 47,8%

So villain folds 47,8% of his range even if he calls with AJ with no diamond in it.

EDIT:
Oh yeah of course he will have also something like 67 etc in his range but that should keep the folding amount in the same number as he folds the same amount of those combos. (doesn't matter if he folds 35/71 or 38/74, its the same % or really close to the same)

Preflop do you always open 3x BU? Probably it's a good idea to go smaller if you open wide ranges.
Flop I don't like the cbet against a reg because you are at the very bottom of your range with almost no backdoor equity. If you cbet this hand, you have to pretty much cbet 100% here. Still with good enough sample for 67% fold to cbet it is fine to cbet everything to exploit.
I like your river bet and the sizing is nice too. We don't target flushes, we target the hands without a diamond and he will have enough of those in his range for our 1/2 bet to work well enough (people don't really bluffcatch weak hands here).

Originally posted by kriko92
Preflop do you always open 3x BU? .

Yes I always open to 3x on the button. Why to open smaller when villains can just adjust by defending wider--> whats the point? Open smaller to play more pots..?:f_rolleyes: Maybe I should open 2x vs villains who don't adjust.

And I have 1k sample of hands with fold to cbet 67 so I'm fine with cbetting here vs this villain.

So villain folds 47,8% of his range even if he calls with AJ with no diamond in it.

Yes, if villain folds those hands. This is so common spot to bluff that I might find a call here with some of those hands if I was villain. I can see him calling 88,99,TT,Jx sometimes. If he calls, he has to be only 20% of the time right and I think you will have bluffs here often enough. TAGs and other aggressive players are going to bet here very very often after turn goes xx and villain checks river. Many guys hate to give up the pot and check behind. This is exploitable imo.

Why to open smaller when villains can just adjust by defending wider--> whats the point?

I think not that many villains will adjust to your smaller bets. In my experience villains tend to overfold to steals so using a smaller size is fine. If you notice someone is 3betting you more often you can tighten up or start 4betting.

The real point is that we want to collect the blinds for cheapest possible and defend for cheaper.

I think the river stab is OK here. Much of the villain's x range OTR here can fold to a small value bet. Middle PP and most jacks will end up in the bin.

Just your bad luck that he had what you wanted to say you have. That happens.

Your story is OK and says "I have a medium flush with an offsuit kicker that didn't make a pair" - and this a very wide range you represent.

Originally posted by marsa08

Originally posted by kriko92
Preflop do you always open 3x BU? .

Yes I always open to 3x on the button. Why to open smaller when villains can just adjust by defending wider--> whats the point? Open smaller to play more pots..?:f_rolleyes: Maybe I should open 2x vs villains who don't adjust.

One of the main leaks of microstakes players is that they don't defend enough from the blinds and even if they do, they don't know what to do postflop and fold too much to your cbets. How do we exploit that? When we open big we actually help them because their folds become more correct as they need to defend less often. It is similar to cbetting in position on a dry board - the bigger we make the cbet, the more our opponent can fold correctly and we make his game easier.
Playing more pots in position against wide and weak ranges isn't really a disadvantage and also opening smaller makes defending against 3bets easier.

It is definitely worth a bet OTR. The target is Qx up to whatever he will be folding. As played, that is a shitload of hands. The real issue is the sizing. What do you exactly target, and how much does it cost to get him off these hands? There is surely a sizing that is profitable. Villain sees four on the board. That is probably the end of his analysis. No need for rocket science.