66 - folds set OTF

Utg AQ, MP 8s9s ...
We are not always vs sets, imo. I can call.

maybe Mp plays his flushdraw like this? if he had the nutflushdraw and it comes to an allin he can very well win a huge pot if both of you call... i dont know. its though. i think i would have called with a crying eye

I think the X-R from the open raiser multiway shows enormous strength. Clearly this villain was capable of doing it with an extraordinarily weird hand if it was foldable, but the only other time I've seen X-R from an open raiser who was otherwise sensible was top set with KK.

Heads up its a crying call but in all honesty the UTG+1 scares me far more than the MP. Though to be honest I really did expect to watch a showdown of 77 vs AA and congratulate myself for being a superstar folder.

I think the fold is correct. Especially in FR. UTG doesn't x/r AQ here. Even if you put alot of FD's in their ranges ur in horrible shape. MP easily can play QQ this way.

Obviously utg can xr AQ as he folds to the push...

dont know about fR but i would go with it even with bottom set here and feeling good ...

Originally posted by nitrol
Obviously utg can xr AQ as he folds to the push...

He'd rather do that with AA/KK then with AQ

Well, we stand perfect vs AA, KK too...

Originally posted by nitrol
Well, we stand perfect vs AA, KK too...

You are forgetting MP overshoves?

Vs MP we need 40-41%. Vs both we need 33?
I am not forgetting anything. Just saying...

Originally posted by nitrol
Vs MP we need 40-41%. Vs both we need 33?
I am not forgetting anything. Just saying...

I'm still not getting anywhere near 33% equity against those ranges with AA and KK in UTG range. Also we need more then 33% equity when UTG will fold AA and KK after mp shoves. I'm getting 23% tops. And in that scenario i added AA,KK to UTG's range and added a bunch of draws to both players as well.

Wow. I think he's more likely to have AA or KK here than a set. Hell, he could even be getting crazy with AQ. I would have absolutely called here.

i'm fine with it. i only feel bad about folding here because mp doesn't have a full stack and you have a super low sample on him (likely to not be reg) and if utg is playing under the same assumptions then it doesn't make sense for him to take this line for value. in reg wars no problem with folding for sure

Hero 57.06% 57.06% 0.00% 6h6c
UTG 20.26% 20.18% 0.08% QQ+, 77, AQs, AQo
MP+1 22.68% 22.59% 0.08% QQ, 77, AQs, KQs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, KsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, AQo, KQo

That is an very optimistic range. Definitly for FR.

I think this is more accurate:

Board: 7hQs6s
Equity Winst Split
MP2 27.70% 27.70% 0.00% { 6h6c }
MP3 23.91% 23.91% 0.00% { QQ+, 77, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, QsJs, AsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s }
CO 48.39% 48.39% 0.00% { QQ, 77, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s }

Originally posted by feye7

MP3 23.91% 23.91% 0.00% { QQ+, 77, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, QsJs, AsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s }

I think UTG 16/11 is not opening half of those hands....
A more optimistic is QQ+, 77, AsKs, AsQs

CO can have AQ and you should not rule them all out...

Hero 42.05% 42.05% 0.00% 6h6c
UTG 28.16% 28.16% 0.00% QQ+, 77, AsKs, AsQs
MP+1 29.79% 29.79% 0.00% QQ, 77, AQs, AsKs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, AQo

I think AA,KK and draws are more likely than sets. There is two spades on the flop and a great risk that we check flop behind so I would take sets away from MP's range because he didn't bet. Do tight guys at FR open 77 from UTG? I think I would call here.

77 is in his open range.

Optimistic to think he often can x-r aa kk aq 3 ways in FR. Obviously he did but again I would never presume to expect it. Its a streaky play...

Im happy with the fold for having the OR to act behind me and as i give him a range of QQ only for that move. As i said vs mp its a snapcall if a worried one.