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KTo - Overbetting for value

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MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $32.95
SB: $16.00 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
BB: $29.27 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG: $56.78 (VPIP: 24.70, PFR: 19.03, 3Bet Preflop: 11.81, Hands: 342)
MP: $14.94 (VPIP: 15.56, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
CO: $23.10 (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has T♠ K♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, BB calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.10, 2 players) 9♥ Q♣ 7♦
BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, BB calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.50, 2 players) J♠
BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, BB calls $2.00

River: ($6.50, 2 players) 8♠
BB checks, Hero bets $10.00, BB calls $10.00

I marked this opponent as a fish before, so I assume he's probably weaker and calls more postflop. There are several things that crossed my mind when I played this hand:

1) The turnplay: Being that strong it may make sense to already overbet to 2x pot to extract max. value from villain vs. Twopairs, and hands like slowplayed overpairs (~30% of them) and AQ (~50% of them). And fire the river for 1,5x pot.

2) Overbetting the river even bigger (like 2,5x pot). Not sure if he would call an All-In. Possibly, but I left myself the possibility that he just folds his Tx. Maybe I am thinking too much within my own headspace with that one and should have just shoved.

aaaaaaaaaaand your opinions.... :f_biggrin:


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12 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Imo your line is good but I'm not sure if we should overbet turn and/or river. Even if fish doesn't have a clue about bet sizes overbetting looks very strong. Of course if you have a read that he will call those then go for it. =)


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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

Hi! I think that you could just bet smaller to get value from mid pair/top pair. If the fish got 2pair+ he will raise it and you will get your money in.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Here you target Tx that think they are splitting. I would push. Push should have the highest EV.
And yes, villain will call with all Tx here.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Agreed


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by YohanN7
Agreed

With what? :)


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by YohanN7
Agreed

With what? :)

With that villain will call non-nut straight. I know he'll call because I'd call because I am a fish and should know:f_biggrin:


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Indeed, every fish is calling here holding a straight (T, 56, strong likelihood also with sets)


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I am absolutely sure that pushing is max + EV.


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AXSPIRAL
Joined: 06.03.2011

i think i agree on pushing here. too hard to fold a straight without flush danger.. only KT beating it..


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by nitrol
I am absolutely sure that pushing is max + EV.

I can agree with that.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

The profit we make for the times he calls our push is more than the times we bet a smaller bet desperately tryng to get a call...
Plus all Tx are calling as they think you are trying tu push them off the split.


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srna10
Joined: 17.12.2010

First thought is shove OTR. Villain called 2 big bets so get max value from his 2 pairs and non-nut straight.


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