AQs - good odds on flop, not on turn

I'd not bet that flop.

By the way, do you expect your guy to call or fold preflop when you raise?

I'd expect him to call.

So don't you call a bet then either ? Are we giving up here on the flop ?
Because if we call, we can better bet ourselves and execute some Fold equity that way.

Preflop: Don't bloat the pot preflop when you are out of position knowing you get called. Making an extra large bet "because you are OOP" is just silly. Knowing he'd call anything, I'd simply check or make a small pot-sweetener raise.

Flop: I'd call or fold depending on his bet size. We are not in good shape here, regardless of gutshot and overcards. We are chasing. The only worse hand he can conceivably have (that calls) is KQ. That hand has an OESD and will blow us off on the turn when we check (as we probably must do).

Sure, he can have an underpair that he would have folded to a bet. If so, then let it be so. He had the best hand after all.

thanks for the advice Yohan

YW. Others will probably give slightly different advice since they are more aggressive than me out of position. Flop bet is not horrible, but putting in 10% of stacks preflop is when you know a call is coming.

No. I agree that preflop we do notneed a 3bet ( large)when we will get called.
Flop is not a place for us to bet. Board isconnected, you will get wide calls and low FE.
GS+OC may let us call flop if we take the passive approach but just for 1 street.

I don't like that pre 3bet.
I agree that we don't have to bet OTF. I think that flop hits villains range. I don't expect many folds here.
OTT sets, flushes and overpairs are possible so folding is fine.

Yohan's reasoning is very good.

The reasons given (by the three of us that have replied so far) for not betting flop (as played preflop) are probably "correct", but I think they are incomplete.

It is clear that the flop hit villains range.

But what is equally important is that this flop did not hit us very well. We are almost surely having AA/KK/QQ here (18 combos). Do we have JJ/TT? On average "maybe", say 3 combos. Then consider high card combos. We have AK (16) and, say, 8 combos of AQ. How many AJ/AT/KJ, etc? Very few!

A good villain will figure this out and maybe float with questionable holdings. A bad villain will not figure this out, but might still float, unknowingly making a good play. Therefore the fold equity is pretty bad.

As far as value goes, pretty much everything is "tainted". Even the nut outs probably will not on average yield a very big pot.

Pre-flop with such a strong hand is a correct 3-bet for value.
At this level it is +EV to play with a hammer.
HU c-bet with overcards, gutshot and backdoor flush draw is perfect.
The turn bet size is inviting, but Hero tried twice and it is thin at this level, I like the fold.
Well played.

Lol, nice discussion.

that's what great about poker.