Poker Stars $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2891377
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BTN: $8.26
SB: $2.13
Hero (BB): $4.48
UTG: $3.21 (Vpip 10, PFR 5, 27 hands)
MP: $0.97
CO: $1.45
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with K♦ K♣
UTG raises to $0.06, 3 folds, SB calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.24, UTG calls $0.18, SB calls $0.18
Flop: ($0.72) 8♦ J♠ 6♣ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, UTG calls $0.40, SB folds
Turn: ($1.52) Q♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90
River: ($3.32) T♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.67 all in, Hero folds
Preflop and flop is standard imo. It's the turn that I'm questioning. I don't have a ton of hands against this player, but he seems very nitty. Because of this i think his continuing range is going to be high pocket pairs and AK, maybe AQs? Not sure if he would call with any suited connectors here.
Considering his stats I don't think this player will the bluffing type. So after he calls the flop he either has a set, maybe AJs or an overpair like QQ-AA. The turn gives QQ a set as well. If he has AJ i don't see the sense in him bluffing here. AQ floating the flop makes no sense, no flushdraws or anything. So i assume hes betting for value here, the question is what that means for him. I don't see a value hand that we beat, and maybe i should just fold the turn honestly, but that seems so weak.. As played i def think river is a fold, i don't see anything i beat but bluffs at this point, and tight players usually don't go for the mega river bluff-shoves.
Thoughts?