AK 3bet pot

You don't have to be afraid of x/shove. Those might happen but are very rare. Villain probably has weaker Ax. Bet somewhere around 1/2 imo.

He can be calling with overpairs pre like 10s, JJ and QQ. But he is betting these on the flop. Only hands that he shove river is 77 and 88, which he should be re-raising on the turn. (defend from draws and getting paid by Ak-Aj) 33 I think he is folding pre. 88 is very unlikley on the river. So what he can have now is Ax, we beat all Ax except A8, A7 and A3. Most likley is a suited Ace, which makes him have less two pairs. We dont want to bet to low to get reraised cause we look bluffy so just above 1/2 on river would be nice. We are getting paid by all his Ax if he is fish, so we are getting called by way more hands that we beat.

Am I thinking correct here?

Yes you are thinking correctly. Stronger hands he would donk OTF or raise OTT and he will not check river and risk us checking behind. He can still have TT-QQ though. Most likely I would put him on weaker Ax and maybe some flush draw that missed OTR. He looks quite weak and we can easily bet that 1/2 for value.

Originally posted by la55i
You don't have to be afraid of x/shove. Those might happen but are very rare. Villain probably has weaker Ax. Bet somewhere around 1/2 imo.

I think that x/shove is possible. 8x will xc flop. He does not have to donk with them as the squeezer might easily have higher pairs.

Originally posted by la55i
Yes you are thinking correctly. Stronger hands he would donk OTF or raise OTT and he will not check river and risk us checking behind. He can still have TT-QQ though. Most likely I would put him on weaker Ax and maybe some flush draw that missed OTR. He looks quite weak and we can easily bet that 1/2 for value.

He may not donk stronger hands. QQ-TT will xc flop most of the time. They do not want to make the pot big.
Villain can have 8x here.
But as he has weaker Ax too, we can make a small river bet.

This is a tricky spot. We do want to value bet, but we do not want to put over 50% of our stack in and then fold to a shove.

1/2 pot bet sounds nice for value, but then it sucks if villain shoves and we have to fold. No point in putting 70% of your stack in and then folding to a shove.

You should not be afraid of x/shove BUT you should think that if you bet something like 50% of the pot on the river you can't really fold anymore as you have already put too much of your stack in.

So; don't be afraid of villain shoving but you have to plan the hand the way that you are not too committed to call if you are not willing to go all-in with your hand.

Bet around 30% of the pot on the river and you can still fold to a shove. Villain will call with all his Ax hands and 99+ .

Also the reason to bet small on this spot is that villain will likely have a weak hand given his line so he will likely call with his whole range vs small sizing.

Originally posted by marsa08
This is a tricky spot. We do want to value bet, but we do not want to put over 50% of our stack in and then fold to a shove.

1/2 pot bet sounds nice for value, but then it sucks if villain shoves and we have to fold. No point in putting 70% of your stack in and then folding to a shove.

You should not be afraid of x/shove BUT you should think that if you bet something like 50% of the pot on the river you can't really fold anymore as you have already put too much of your stack in.

But what hands can he shove with OTR? He would donk all 87, 83 OTF. He fold the rest of his 8x OTT, and should bet all his sets. So these are not likley. Only hands left are Ax and we beat all of those OTR. He can have A7 or A3 but we beat those OTR. Only hand I see him shoving is A8 and he has few combos of A8 since we block one Ace. Does not this make a shove bluff more likley?

Originally posted by Avskum

Originally posted by marsa08
Blah Blah

But what hands can he shove with OTR? He would donk all 87, 83 OTF. He fold the rest of his 8x OTT, and should bet all his sets. So these are not likley. Only hands left are Ax and we beat all of those OTR. He can have A7 or A3 but we beat those OTR. Only hand I see him shoving is A8 and he has few combos of A8 since we block one Ace. Does not this make a shove bluff more likley?

I would not assume that villain donks 87 otf. I would assume that he leads turn with these hands (sets,87,A8)
after we x flop.

He can shove river with mainly 89s/8Ts if these are in his range. I dont see him folding those hands to a turn bet or leading turn.

I generally dont like the idea of betting 1/2 pot and folding to a shove. If you are betting 1/2 pot IMO you should then call the shove too.

I find this hand is so easy. Make a small bet and fold to a shove. We have TPTK versus scarred villain play and are entitled to place one more bet for value. Sure, he can check-raise, but don't be afraid of it. Are you a man or a mouse?

What I mean by "hand is so easy" is that there is no need to write a PhD dissertation to guess what he is holding. Save that effort to trickier spots. We have TPTK and the though process should end there. It also matters little our hand is face up.