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AKs - 3bet Pot - Gameplan

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MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $25.00 (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 20.63, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 65)
SB: $36.17 (VPIP: 22.64, PFR: 22.64, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 54)
Hero (BB): $52.22
UTG: $43.34 (VPIP: 5.88, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
MP: $25.00 (VPIP: 17.14, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 70)
CO: $39.60 (VPIP: 20.15, PFR: 17.91, 3Bet Preflop: 2.33, Hands: 140)

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A♦ K♦

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.75, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.70, CO calls $1.95

Flop: ($5.50, 2 players) 5♦ 9♠ 4♥
Hero bets $3.00, CO calls $3.00

Turn: ($11.50, 2 players) 2♠
Hero checks, CO bets $6.25, fold

Villain is a reg, with a ft3bet of 40% overall. So far his post flop stats look reasonable and there's nothing fancy about those. Therefore I wouldn't expect a lot of floats on this flop texture.

I just gave him following range for calling my preflop 3bet:

JJ-22,QdQh,QdQs,QdQc,A2s+,KTs+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,AJo+,KQo

Vs. this range we are actually ahead:

Spoiler


Board: 9♠5♦4♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    46.73%  43.62%   3.11% { JJ-22, QdQh, QdQs, QdQc, A2s+, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, AJo+, KQo }
MP3    53.27%  50.16%   3.11% { AdKd }

But what is the better play? Betting or checking? The opponent has a 5/5 Bet flop in position stat. But it would be bad if he just barrels us off on the turn if we go for a check/call. In opposition not a lot of worse calls our cbet, therefore it would just to take it down and protect our equity.

Your thoughts on this?


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5 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I don't know if you accomplish much by cbetting this flop. I think villain has many hands that he will call one street with so I would go with check call OTF.
As played there is a chance that villain is just stabbing you, you have a gutshot and your A and K might be alive, so what do you think about calling turn?


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noobis667
Joined: 04.02.2012

Oh i think c bet its fine when hero will bar that turn,if he will not then x flop.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I will give him slightly tighter range:
JJ-77,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo-AJo,KQo

MP2 62.49% 61.90% 0.59% AdKd
MP3 37.51% 36.92% 0.59% JJ-77, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo-AJo, KQo


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advancedTN1984
Joined: 29.10.2012

There is somewhat a rule of thumb: hero doesnt barrel twice with his air in a 3bet pot. As a result villain can have the game plan to float hero and stab on the turn(if villain is thinking player).

This is somewhat outlined in the weazel walkthrough series i think.


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I am also thinking about check calling otf. Not many worse hand will call you, and you cannot make stronger hands to fold.


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