shove JJ vs 50bb in 3-bet pot?

Why do you overbet push the turn? Give some thoughts...

That is a huge bet OTT indeed

As played, stab OTR because you are committed.

We cannot stab as he is shortstack and we make him AI on turn.

There is no reason to shove OTT. What hands will call you?
Villain has only sets, 2pair, straight. The worst hand that will call your shove is a monsterdraw with 15 outs against you.

My though was that he was fishy and only playing for 50bb so I expect him to call me a lot with Pair+draw especially as Top pair + fd is possible, monster draw. I think with most of his 2 pairs he would have raised the flop rather than slowplaying, so I think he calls me with sets and straight but I he might pay me with a lot of worse hands like JTo or fd + pair hands that might get the most value from when I shove. (I assumed with 50bb stacks he will go broke more readily)

You know, pushing overbet is too strong move even for a fish...

MP2 14.62% 14.62% 0.00% { JdJc }
MP3 85.38% 85.38% 0.00% { TT-99, 66, 33, T9s, T6s, 96s, 87s, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Qh8h, Jh8h, T9o, T6o, 96o, 87o }

This is as wide as it gets. When you shove you make sure villain calls only with a tight range, even fish will not call you wider.
We can take out all of his sets and 2 pair, leave only those strong draws and straight, and your equity will increase about 1%...

I would argue about the range you gave him la55i. At first you assume that he would defend with offsuite gappers like T6o which I don't think is the case, I assume offsuite connectors like 56o+ is as low as his range goes preflop (which is already pretty loose). Also I think he might have hands like TPGK+ he will stack off with which you excluded from your range.

Board: 9♥6♥T♠ 3♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    33.69%  33.69%   0.00% { JdJc }
MP3    66.31%  66.31%   0.00% { TT-99, 66, ATs, KTs, T9s, T6s, 87s, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, Th7h, 9h7h, Ah6h, ATo, T9o, 87o }

Its still looking bad but if he calls me, but I should also get a lot of fold equity (I get about 112 combinations he will call the flop with but only 80-90 combinations he will not fold to my turn shove so we would have 20-30% FE)

EV = 0,2 x 16,5bb + 0,8 x (0,34 x 108bb - 0,66 x 45,75bb) = + 8,25bb

Lets say he only calls me with TPTK+ fd and better, my Fold equity will go way up (as he would fold 50% of his combinations he calls the flop with) and I get about 16% equity.

EV = 0,5 x 16,5 + 0,5 x (0,16 x 108bb - 0,84 x 45,75bb) = -2,3 bb

so even in the worst case scenario, it's not that bad (and I assume that he will be calling me lighter)

Is my EV calculation correct here?

I am not saying that it was the best play, I am just wondering how bad it was and if I did the math right. If I did I suppose the truth will be somewhere in between and the turn shove might be about break even.

I just though a bit more about the hand, I think the good thing about shoving the turn is, that I give a fishy villain the opportunity to make a big mistake OTT. Also I used the scenario analyzer to see what equity different river cards would give me - and as it turns out, I really don't want to see most of them. Only 10 cards (of which 2 are Jacks) would give me an equity over 40%. Any heart would be really bad, any overcard is bad and anything that is not a blank is at least not good.... I think getting it in OTT is at least an option we should consider.

Lol you do not want to play a big pot with this hand...

personally i would try get value 2 streets with this hand and table,as you say yourself there is really no card you will be happy to see at river,, and if you make shoveing your standard play in this situations you will win a few BB some times but lose alot of BB most times, so this play in long term will be - i think. if hes Fish then you will get better chances to get his money thru his mistakes at microstakes

Hm, I think second barrel with look better here. Also, this is low board and could fit well for fish call. I don't mind to shove if it will be 3B Pot and we protect from Ax hands of the fish. Sometime it is ok to shove vs calling machine but I'd prefer to have a blocker for flush in this case (I mean hero should have J♥:JX)

Originally posted by LeSavant
My though was that he was fishy ...

Thoughts based on opponents hating money will cost you money. Fish are not very acquainted with optimal poker, but you can bet that they like money more than they hate it, and they aren't necessarily downright stupid.

Nooooooo...why? No reason at all to go crazy and shove the Turn. You can just play it smooth and make a normal sized bet for value.

I have not read other replies but here is mine:

By shoving the turn you make villain play perfectly against you: he will fold worse hands and call with better hands.

You don't give him a chance to make calling mistakes by shoving.