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JJ rivers set but also 4 to a straight

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slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

MP1 22/4 3bet 3% - 106 hands
When a passive player raises 3.5X and bets pot on the flop I'm worried and want to get to showdown cheaply, but when he checks back turn should I be value betting the river? But what worse hands would check turn and call a bet OTR? Sets or straight (J8, 86 very unlikely) would bet turn and I think overpairs would as well, OTR its unlikely he has an 8, unless he has 88.
If I do bet the river can I call a raise?

Pacific, $2.70 Buy-in (75/150 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players

SB: 15,739 (104.9 bb)
Hero (BB): 13,500 (90 bb)
UTG+1: 15,110 (100.7 bb)
UTG+2: 15,130 (100.9 bb)
MP1: 14,757 (98.4 bb)
MP2: 14,850 (99 bb)
MP3: 15,043 (100.3 bb)
CO: 14,238 (94.9 bb)
BTN: 16,450 (109.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J♣: J♦:
2 folds, MP1 raises to 525, 5 folds, Hero calls 375

Flop: (1,125) T♥: 3♥: 9♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets 1,125, Hero calls 1,125

Turn: (3,375) 7♦: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

River: (3,375) J♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

Results:

Spoiler

3,375 pot
Final Board: T♥: 3♥: 9♠: 7♦: J♠:
Hero showed J♣: J♦: and won 3,375 (1,725 net)
MP1 showed K♣: A♣: and lost (-1,650 net)


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I think it’s difficult for him to have a better hand on the river when he checked the turn.
The only logic hands are KQ and indeed 88 here and based on his stats it’s even likely he would play those hands passive pre-flop. So I don’t think bet/call the river would be a bad option here.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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gusma
Joined: 07.10.2007

OTR you have to bet, but I think its very unlikely He will bluff as any pair has enough SD value. So I would go for a bet/fold here.


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