Pocket Aces on wet board

I guess I the opponent is fishy, his calling IP range would be 22+,ATs+,A5s,KJs+,QJs,J9s+,T9s,98s,AJo+

So, on the flop I guess he would call with 22+,AQs-ATs,A5s,AdKd,AcKc,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,JcTc,Jc9c,Tc9c,Tc8c,9c8c. But I most probably would raise with 44-66 bcs we are deep enough. OTT he would probably call with 77+,33,A5s,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,JcTc,Jc9c,Tc9c,Tc8c,9c8c
OTR - all draw are missed, only 77 are closed. So, to me it is an easy bet OTR with 100BB stacks, but in DEEP - you need to review XFold option. We are not completely commited yet. (In deep). How often your unknown opponent would bluff here? Not often. I gueess I would shove here with 77-88 and with sets(44-66) from the flop if he descided to slowplay. I would pay him up to 50bb OTR and no more.
So, there 2 options XCall up to 50BB, betFold 50BB.

I like it as played till river. Your river bet commits you and you cannot fold. bet smaller or xc if not a huge bet.
Maybe we can raise bigger preflop.

We should make it bigger pre, like 15 BB. As played, I think that flop size is a bit too small and turn and river sizes are too big. I would bet like 60% all streets (bet/fold river), maybe even rather check/call or check/fold the river.

pre is indeed a bigger raise. River bet should be smaller or x/c IMO.

I agree with others. This is well played but bet sizes need some adjustment.

Preflop: Is this your standard 3-bet size? If so, it is okay sizing, otherwise you should probably bet bigger.

Postflop bet sizing is really the opposite of what it should be. 50% flop 75% turn, 75% river. This is not good. Flop bets should quite generally be bigger than turn bets, especially on drawy boards. All his drawing hands drop significantly in equity on turn (unless they hit), and all his value hands smaller than yours can't afford to pay off. People sometimes counter with that he picks up new draws on turn. Well so do you on average!.

Here sizings of 80% flop, 50% turn and 25% river (or something similar) would be better.

Yohan, bet/fold river with this sizing?

Originally posted by nitrol
Yohan, bet/fold river with this sizing?

Yes. We beat busted flush draws only if the raise comes, and this is Baluga squared. I don't like losing 189 bb with unimproved AA. (If all money goes in on flop it is slightly better. Still wouldn't like it.)