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KK vilain shoves on flop

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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 197.6 BB
BB: 200.4 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
UTG: 198 BB (VPIP: 28.89, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 46)
MP: 93.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
CO: 118.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 6)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♠ K♥

UTG raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 13.4 BB, fold, BB calls 12.4 BB, UTG calls 10.4 BB, MP calls 10.4 BB

Flop: (54 BB, 4 players) T♦ T♠ 4♠
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets 34.4 BB, fold, UTG raises to 184.6 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero ...

Hey, guys.

Pre-flop there's not much to say.

On the flop the three players check and I c-bet 2/3 the pot and than UTG raises all-in.

I don't see UTG open raise and calling with Tx hands, maybe ATs but just maybe. I think by calling that UTG has high pocket pairs, 88+ or even TT+, AQs+ and AK. I also don't think he has AA or KK.

When he check/raises on the flop, I think he could do that with overpairs and maybe a nut flush draw. What do you think?

I think the only hand that villain could have that is ahead of us is TT, I don't think he has AA nor Tx.

But even if we give him ATs we get odds to call, we need 35.5% to call:


Board: T♦T♠4♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    26.82%  26.82%   0.00% { QQ-TT, ATs, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs }
CO     73.18%  73.18%   0.00% { KhKs }

Even against the following range we have the odds to call:

Board: T♦T♠4♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    57.02%  54.03%   2.98% { QQ+, TT, ATs }
CO     42.98%  40.00%   2.98% { KhKs }

What do you say, are you calling his flop shove?


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12 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I do not think he has AA, KK here as he would play them differently preflop.
You can discount the flush combos as board is paired and it is not ok to bust with that.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Run the numbers and include Aces in villain's range and see how much you need.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Bet smaller on flop. Something like 25-27 bb is enough to find out where you stand.

Then, he check-raises a field of 4 (minus one who folded) all in. The fold is trivial. Doesn't matter if he bluffed you out.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

We should make it smaller OTF, agree with that. When someone raises the flop into bunch of players in a 3bet pot, I believe it's a clear fold with one pair.


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

Villain calls a 3bet from BTN I put him on JJ-77 AQs (bear in mind I play superloose). Flop is superdry and unlikely anybody holds a T. Hero holds KK so it is a clear call. Unless Hero has a read on this fish and he is certain fish is holding AA.


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

I guess our opponent would not call preflop squeeze with AA - just note BB CC vs squeeze, most player would not slowroll aces in multyway pot. To me my opponent most probably has FD and sometime JTs or 44, JJ+ Anyway, vs possible push range KK-TT, 44, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, ATo we have 50%
Also, we already put 50% of our stack. So, 52/ 227 = 0,23 => easy + EV call.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Not that many guys Will push a FD on paired board mw...


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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

Originally posted by Hesticus
Run the numbers and include Aces in villain's range and see how much you need.

I did it in the second simulation in my post. I still got over 40% equity.

Originally posted by scopinad
Villain calls a 3bet from BTN I put him on JJ-77 AQs (bear in mind I play superloose). Flop is superdry and unlikely anybody holds a T. Hero holds KK so it is a clear call. Unless Hero has a read on this fish and he is certain fish is holding AA.

I didn't have any specific read on villain. I don't think he would be holding AA.

Well, I see opinions diverge in that spot. But I tried putting villain in a range that would justify not calling, and the only way we do it is if we don't consider any bluffs in his range.

What do you think of the last range I gave villain?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

What bluffs when mw on paired board?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

It would be totally senseless for a hand like QQ/KK/AA to make a move like that. They are either way ahead (and will usually win anyway) or they are way behind drawing dead to a 2-outer. Such hands (and you) should hope to win a small pot, and that's it.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Originally posted by robin261187

Originally posted by Hesticus
Run the numbers and include Aces in villain's range and see how much you need.

I did it in the second simulation in my post. I still got over 40% equity.

Then I'd call as we need 32% minimum.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Equilab is much like a computer program you know. Garbage in - garbage out.


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