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SH AKs, TPTK Facing River Cbet in 3bet Pot

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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $35.68 (142.7 bb)
BB: $31.70 (126.8 bb)
UTG: $41.30 (165.2 bb)
MP: $25.10 (100.4 bb)
CO: $70.76 (283 bb)
Hero (BTN): $44.30 (177.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K♥: A♥:
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, SB raises to $2.20, BB folds, Hero calls $1.70

Flop: ($4.65) 4♣: 9♦: J♥: (2 players)
SB bets $2.90, Hero calls $2.90

Turn: ($10.45) A♦: (2 players)
SB bets $5.70, Hero calls $5.70

River: ($21.85) 2♥: (2 players)
SB bets $15.65, Hero??

Preflop: Standard open. SB plays 13/13 in 41 hands. Decided to call his 3bet. I think 4betting would be an option, but we are a bit deep and he looks like a tight player so far (small sample, though).

Flop: With two overs and backdoors, I think I don't want to fold - either call or bluff raise. Decided to call this time because don't know villain's tendencies.

Turn: Hit my TP, so I can't fold. Just calling is fine imo.

River: Here it becomes tricky imo. Card is a blank, but his size is quite big and his line looks very very strong. Could he do that with AQ or AT, KK or QQ, or as a bluff? I think folding is the best move, but on the other hand, we have a very good bluffcatcher. Pot odds are ~30%

Maybe this would be realistic OTR:

Board: 4♣9♦J♥ A♦ 2♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     47.37%  42.11%   5.26% { AhKh }
BB     52.63%  47.37%   5.26% { AA, JJ, 99, ATs+, QTs }


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8 replies
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Optimistic range. He is overbluffing with that range.

The contents per se of the range looks decent, but he'll not 3-bet all QTs preflop in the first place if you see what I mean.


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Saren113
Joined: 06.03.2009

Don't forget about 99 JJ also think he got those in his 3b range, but ye might be wrong, if we fold this blank of a runout i think we are overfolding vs a line that is mainly repping two pairs and sets and combo draws. I would probably end up cry calling that river as it dosen't change anything, and take a note on our range in that spot for future action.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

He has them in the 3bet range :)

I'd call here but will make a note.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Not calling. Too much better hands.


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bigdog63
Joined: 24.10.2011

It looks very strong, but still vs unknown I would make a crying call and make a note


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vengeance77
Joined: 18.04.2010

we cannot fold on the river without info ;)
This is the most nitty without bluffs=)
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
BU 58.62% 48.58% 10.03% { AhKh }
SB 41.38% 31.35% 10.03% { AA, JJ, 44, AQs+, AJo+ }

And I'm giving him more value combos, that he actually has like 44, AJ, and in addition he will have a ton of busted gutters;)


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

MP2 36.67% 26.67% 10.00% AhKh
MP3 63.33% 53.33% 10.00% AA, JJ, 99, 44, AJs+, AJo+

not much bluffs will 3 barrel here. we can even take out some AQ combos...


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by vengeance77
we cannot fold on the river without info ;)
This is the most nitty without bluffs=)
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
BU 58.62% 48.58% 10.03% { AhKh }
SB 41.38% 31.35% 10.03% { AA, JJ, 44, AQs+, AJo+ }

And I'm giving him more value combos, that he actually has like 44, AJ, and in addition he will have a ton of busted gutters;)

You have no use of Equilab whatsoever the way you use it. It doesn't even match your last comment. Take out all AQ except max two (people don't turn these into bluffs every day of the year) and actually do add a few busted draws (not very many, but some like a couple QTs). Then 99 should be there. This would be a start.


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