Three of a kind in a bluffcatching spot

Originally posted by cantunho
WPN, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $65.57 (131.1 bb)
BB: $49.06 (98.1 bb)
UTG: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
MP: $45.65 (91.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $66.24 (132.5 bb)
BTN: $50 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T♠: T♥:
UTG raises to $1.50, MP calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($5.25) Q♥: 8♠: T♣: (3 players)
UTG bets $3.32, MP folds, Hero calls $3.32

Turn: ($11.89) J♣: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $7.53, UTG raises to $22.59, Hero calls $15.06

River: ($57.07) 5♥: (2 players)
UTG bets $23.34 and is all-in, Hero calls $23.34

Results:

Spoiler

$103.75 pot ($3.00 rake)
Final Board: Q♥: 8♠: T♣: J♣: 5♥:
UTG showed Q♦: K♠: and lost (-$50.75 net)
Hero showed T♠: T♥: and won $100.75 ($50 net)

This is a close spot right? the calldown turn and river, i assume hes going to have some bluffs, he clearly repping AK here i guess but is he really x/r turn in this spot?, i can have 2pair, sets, a flush draw came in the turn aswell i guess he wouldnt like to see the board pairing or a river flush i assume he would want to extract value, i think this is super close what u think

I assume he can do this with AJ and KJ ASWELL , and on the flop i usually going to raise his cbet, this time i didnt idk why tbh

Turn is a check-back. As played it is a fold since we don't get the odds to draw at the non-nut FH. The fold is even easier since there is money behind, so we can't go for bluff catching twice.

I would raise flop.
As played, xb turn.
River is a fold.

I would also raise the flop because there are alot of cards that will kill the action OTT or give villain the best hand in some cases. J and 9 are the worst, obviously. As played, I think we can check back the turn, but when we decided to bet I believe folding vs his raise is the best. Alot of hands beats us and he will usually be very strong there, considering his position and actions. I would guess he had AK (before I saw the spoiler).

I would bet turn and fold river here unless he is LAG

It is not ok to bet with 4to-straight ib board. You cannot stack off...

Ye i raise flop usually 99% of the time, this time i didnt maybe semi autopilotiong, but on the turn ye i could xback, but his line dont make that much sense does it?
if i had a 9, turned some kind of flush draw in the turn or had a set like here he wouldN't want that board to pair or a flush to come and extract max value, he would 3barrel ak i believe

Dont you guys believe he could take this line with AJ , Kj no make me fold pretty much everything He is never good with this hands on the turn

he prob check on the turn with the 9 aswell, ye i could xturn, but idk if he raise me with a 9, maybe with k9, not that standand open from utg

Jx are not playing like that.

Turn is not x back - it would be very difficult for him to fold KK+, KQ, QJ. 3bet after his raise ott is better, since his play looks more like strong draw - maybe A♣:Q♣:, KQ.

He almost never has 9 here. First he opens UTG and second - do you think he is betting the flop 3way with a gutshot? And even he has it, it is just a very small part of his range.

Originally posted by cantunho
Ye i raise flop usually 99% of the time, this time i didnt maybe semi autopilotiong, but on the turn ye i could xback, but his line dont make that much sense does it?
if i had a 9, turned some kind of flush draw in the turn or had a set like here he wouldN't want that board to pair or a flush to come and extract max value, he would 3barrel ak i believe

Dont you guys believe he could take this line with AJ , Kj no make me fold pretty much everything He is never good with this hands on the turn

he prob check on the turn with the 9 aswell, ye i could xturn, but idk if he raise me with a 9, maybe with k9, not that standand open from utg

It is called the great overthink and won you a nice pot. This time.

Originally posted by VaskataBuci
He almost never has 9 here. First he opens UTG and second - do you think he is betting the flop 3way with a gutshot? And even he has it, it is just a very small part of his range.

It can be pair+draw...
And UTG has some 9x - 99, A9s,T9s, 98s, some have J9s, 97s...

Originally posted by VaskataBuci
Turn is not x back - it would be very difficult for him to fold KK+, KQ, QJ. 3bet after his raise ott is better, since his play looks more like strong draw - maybe A♣:Q♣:, KQ.

He almost never has 9 here. First he opens UTG and second - do you think he is betting the flop 3way with a gutshot? And even he has it, it is just a very small part of his range.

Even if you peg him as a nit (not playing J9s, 97s, A9s, 99, T9s, ...), and think you are winning it is best to check back and take that last bet on the river instead. Also, you seem to forget AK (and everybody plays AK) which fits his play, and is perfectly reasonable to bet instead of check-call on the flop.

Board: Qh8sTcJc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 44.92% 43.22% 1.69% { KK+, 88, AQs+, A9s, KQs, QJs, J9s, T9s, 98s, AKo, KQo }
CO 55.08% 53.39% 1.69% { ThTs }

ALL 9x and AK combos here.

Why to take the last bet on the river, when ott he has hands that beat us + strong draws that are not folding ott but would fold otr if miss?

Originally posted by VaskataBuci
Board: Qh8sTcJc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 44.92% 43.22% 1.69% { KK+, 88, AQs+, A9s, KQs, QJs, J9s, T9s, 98s, AKo, KQo }
CO 55.08% 53.39% 1.69% { ThTs }

ALL 9x and AK combos here.

Why to take the last bet on the river, when ott he has hands that beat us + strong draws that are not folding ott but would fold otr if miss?

That equity calculation and the board tells you pretty much why you shouldn't. It takes more than 55% to value bet. He isn't going to call you with KQ... Which strong draws do you see there? YOU are drawing.

Remove AQ,KQ and QJ and run it again.

I would raise flop, there are many action killer cards. Turn I would bet small, if he calls again small on river to get calls from all TPTK. I dont expect average reg to check straights in this spot. When he raises your big bet (and your range is so strong) then Imo he has mostly AK, so you should fold.