Villain is a relative unknown
Flop: My standard line is to just bet/fold vs a raise (without further reads and an SPR this large) with anything less than 2pr, however, I think if villain raises here with AJo+, QQ+, 2pr+ then I am actually ahead of villains range which I would expect to be something like:
Spoiler
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Jh5h9c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 57.96% 57.96% 0.00% { KdKh }
MP3 42.04% 42.04% 0.00% { QQ, JdJs, JdJc, JsJc, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, AJs, Jd9d, Js9s, AJo }
However, If I 3b I think villain will only go broke with something like:
Spoiler
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Jh5h9c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 51.54% 51.54% 0.00% { KdKh }
MP3 48.46% 48.46% 0.00% { QQ, JdJs, JdJc, JsJc, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, Q2s, Jd9d, Js9s }
If villain goes broke with anything worse than this range then I think that I have a profitable 3b. The alternative is to call and re-evaluate the turn and keep villain's weaker range in the hand. In addition I have backdoor hearts that may allow me to continue on a lot of turns.
What do you think is the best line OTF and why?
bet/fold, bet/call, bet/3b?
Cheers
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 151 BB (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 23.33, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 32)
SB: 122.4 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 7)
BB: 37 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
MP: 108.2 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 8)
CO: 101 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♦ K♥
Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (9.4 BB, 3 players) 5♥ J♥ 9♣
BB checks, Hero bets 5.8 BB, MP raises to 18 BB, fold, fold
MP wins 20.2 BB
