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ITM JT flops 2nd pair

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slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

Due to bet sizing tell I'm sure he has a K on this flop, but think I can still win a big pot if I improve, so when should I fold, OTT?

Seat 7: Player7 ( 4533 ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 9, 3B: 2, AF: 2.3, Hands: 107

Poker Stars, $6.37 Buy-in (60/120 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 4,533 (37.8 bb)
Hero (BB): 6,292 (52.4 bb)
BTN: 2,675 (22.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T♥: J♥:
BTN raises to 240, SB calls 180, Hero calls 120

Flop: (765) T♠: K♥: 2♦: (3 players)
SB bets 240, Hero calls 240, BTN folds

Turn: (1,245) 5♣: (2 players)
SB bets 240, Hero calls 240

River: (1,725) Q♠: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Results:

Spoiler

1,725 pot
Final Board: T♠: K♥: 2♦: 5♣: Q♠:
SB showed K♦: 9♦: and won 1,725 (990 net)
Hero mucked T♥: J♥: and lost (-735 net)


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Based on his small bet sizing I can’t find a fold on the turn and it’s even possible you have sometimes the best hand as well.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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slippyjim Topic starter
slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

I was 99% sure he had a K, as he had bet small exactly the same before with TP, thats why I think I could fold OTT


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

In that case I would fold the flop already. Now you get to good odds to fold I think.


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multiBase
Joined: 02.02.2012

Originally posted by SDK1987
In that case I would fold the flop already.

Shouldn't we call at least one street with middle pair and backdoor straight and flush draws? V range from SB should be wide so sure, he has a ton of Kx hands, but also many Qx and Ax that missed the flop or have draws.


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slippyjim Topic starter
slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

Originally posted by multiBase

Originally posted by SDK1987
In that case I would fold the flop already.

Shouldn't we call at least one street with middle pair and backdoor straight and flush draws? V range from SB should be wide so sure, he has a ton of Kx hands, but also many Qx and Ax that missed the flop or have draws.

Like I said before, I had a bet sizing read that after he bets that much I'm 99% sure he has a K, so it's just a straight up decision do I call the small bet to improve OTT?
OTF approx 20% chance to improve to 2 pair or trips by the river and getting 4:1 (25%)
OTT approx 10% chance to improve to 2 pair or trips by the river and getting 6:1 (16%)

So I never really have the correct odds, there definitely were some implied odds so it's fairly close and it doesnt impact my stack too much, but then equally I dont want to be giving chips to the middle stack


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multiBase
Joined: 02.02.2012

If you have very good read and you can convincingly put him on particular hand / or very small range as Kx - sure. Sorry, maybe I was not explicit what I meant. What if we don't have this read? - that should be my question.


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slippyjim Topic starter
slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

Arrhhh I see what you mean, yeah I'd definitley call OTF & OTT then, especially for his small bets


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multiBase
Joined: 02.02.2012

Exactly my thought. Sorry again for not so precise question.


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slippyjim Topic starter
slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

no worries dude


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