Top Two, facing a raise on the river when the board pairs.

what about x flop? and if he check back, then start value betting. Since he folds a lot, and we look so strong, we do not get 3 streets of value.

Draws will be themselves.

That way we keep pot smaller and let him bluff in case he would do so.

If he bets flop, then we bluffcatch. If you believe he is not likely bluffing 3 streets, then maybe plan to even fold at some point?

Plus also I see you use big sizing. vs this opponent since he folds a ton, if you choose to bet, maybe it is better to use smaller size. Especially on this scare turn. But on flop as well, cause it will make pot smaller on river and if you have to x/c river, the betsize will be smaller, or if big - easier to fold.

Hm, on the other hand making turn smaller sizing has disadvantage that less protection vs draws. Maybe there are not many strong draws in his range and not a huge problem with that, not sure.

You open from early position and that guy seems to be tight. I think 44,A4,KJ or QT is not in his range very often. For me it looks like JJ, but it is weird that he didn't raise you OTF or OTT. So when you check OTR and he shoves, I would call too with top 2 pair.
I was surprised when I checked the spoiler. You can take a note that he likes calling small pocket pairs vs EP and he doesn't raise sets even if there are some draws.

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
what about x flop? and if he check back, then start value betting. Since he folds a lot, and we look so strong, we do not get 3 streets of value.

We have a strong hand. Villain can call our cbet with many weaker hands too. We would also cbet this flop as a bluff. If villain can't call a flop cbet, he will probably fold to a turn bet too, if he doesn't hit his straight or something. Also I wouldn't want to give up our aggression. Usually it is quite difficult to play OOP without initiative and we might end up making mistakes.

What worse hand will bet river after this flop and turn? AJ?

as played i just ship the river, better hands will raise that turn often and the river 4 is good for you (A4 call from MP vs UTG in FR would be very dubious). if you think you might be potentially screwed against a supernit then you should at least reconsider your sizings, because your hand is definitely too strong to give up with that river spr

Yea, AJ. Also he might bluff some draws like QhJh and JhTh.
That is not many combos but on the other hand what hands will he call if we bet?
When we check we keep his range wider and give him a chance to bluff some missed draws he might have or valuebet that AJ. Check folding with top 2 seems weak to me when villain doesn't rep any strong hands.