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AA good line or fold earlier?

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DanDule
Joined: 04.08.2008

Good Morning! It feels like this could be a fold on the flop reraise, but AA looks so good and its easy to overplay them as a novice. Turn call is questionable. What do you think? Villain VP 13 PF 8 on 39 hands

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $6.52 (130.4 bb)
BB: $5 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $5.84 (116.8 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $5.57 (111.4 bb)
MP1: $4.89 (97.8 bb)
MP2: $3.71 (74.2 bb)
MP3: $6.36 (127.2 bb)
CO: $5 (100 bb)
BTN: $5 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A♥: A♦:
UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 5 folds, SB calls $0.13, BB folds

Flop: ($0.35) J♦: 6♦: 7♦: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, SB raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.55) Q♥: (2 players)
SB bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

River: ($4.05) 2♦: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB folds

Edit: posted wrong hand. correct now


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23 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Flop call is good. You have nut FD and overpair and villain should have some bluffs in his range.
Turn villain bets so big that I guess it is close to folding.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Overpaid does not have same value on monoboard.
Plus will we get paid if we hit the 4th diamond?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

So would you fold overpair with nut FD vs flop raise?
Have you ever bluffed on monoboard or see someone bluff on monoboard?


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

Originally posted by la55i
Flop call is good. You have nut FD and overpair and villain should have some bluffs in his range.

Bluff in nits range? He just hit his set and extracts value, sometime it is lower flush. KdTd and KdQd, Td9d
His turn bet is definitely for value from his bet size. I don't see to much bluffs in his range by this line.
JJ,77-66,KdQd,KdTd,Td9d.
I don't think we have required odds here bcs villains just fold his flush on 4 card flush board, the same he will do with sets I guess. If you would have a big enough selection for this guy and you know he like to go to SD - then we could call from time to time, and in this case - it is not fishy guy who extracts value from you. I guess folding T is +EV.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Well, against flushes only we have over 30% equity. Against sets only we have over 30% equity and if he has all sets and a lot of flushes we have still over 30% equity..
For me it looks like we get direct odds to call on the flop.

Are you sure nits will check raise with sets on mono board? Are you sure they will raise you when they do not hold Ad? Are you sure they can't bluff on a scary board sometimes (if they are good nits they will use their table image)? Are you sure he hasn't been waiting hundreds of hands to get a decent hand and now is going bonkers with TPTK or QQ for example?

So flop looks like a clear call to me.. On the turn our equity drops to 18% and we would need 30%. This means that we have to get 3$ more from villain if we hit. I guess that is achievable when villains range is full of weaker flushes but still folding turn would be ok.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Well, sets may not xr flop but flushes will.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010
nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010

Yeah, yeah... fold preflop. :mdr:

I can tell you this - noone of the guys above would fold this hand at any point :f_biggrin:
I think you played it just fine.


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

I may not fold the nut flush draw without a paired board. Same on turn.
But we do have four dead outs against a set and no implied odds.
No implied odds because of the four suits on the board?
We could shove the river then and represent a bluff to balance all the times we bluff four suits on the board.
Math is not there.....tough hand.


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

or all clean outs? Should not post too early in the morning..


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Yea, since most of the cards are diamonds they can't pair and give us a flush at the same time :) Only bad out is Qd.


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

One dead out. Thanks Lassi.
I found a good video from Splitsuit with the very same hand on this post "how to play a one card flush draw". He seems unhappy to continue in this spot unless we face a very bad player.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

There might be some truth to that but I guess it was an old video? Ppl's tendencies could have changed after that. I think nowadays they can bluff on boards like this more.
But anyway we have decent equity OTF and we should have a call based on direct pot odds.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

'Nothing old. Your flush gets too obvious.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Doesn't matter if it is obvious if we don't need implied odds. Also if villain already has a flush he probably can't fold it. Micro players hate folding, right? Maybe he will not call a shove with K or Q high flush but 1/2 pot easily.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

If our draw is obvious we do not have implied odds as we will not get paid when we hit.
If villain already had a flush we are behind.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Just look at how the hand was played. We called, but our flush and didn't get paid as even smaller flushes are afraid if us having a bigger flush.


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

Yes it played out as it was supposed too. I will fold this spots on the flop in the future.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by nitrol
If our draw is obvious we do not have implied odds as we will not get paid when we hit.
If villain already had a flush we are behind.

We do not need implied odds when we get direct odds. If villain has a made flush now we are behind, but it doesn't matter because when the fourth diamond comes we are ahead. We will hit our flush often enough to call this profitably even if we are 100% behind at the moment. And since we will hit often enough and we will win every time we hit, we don't have to get any more value out of villain. And still in some cases we will get more value out of him.

So since we will win villain 30% of the times, and to call here we need to win 30% of the times, we should call and expect to lose most of the times. On the long run that will be profitable or at least break even.
So let's say folding is ok since it is 0EV but calling here will be super close to break even too. And with a call we will have at least a chance to get more value from his K high flush.

Do I have to repeat myself and tell why I think it doesn't matter if the flush is obvious and we don't need to get any more money from him?


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