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strange fold vs half pot bet when split is likely on OTR

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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

888 Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 24.1 BB (VPIP: 80.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 5)
SB: 142 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
Hero (BB): 57.6 BB
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 21)
MP: 26.9 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 18)
CO: 107.1 BB (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 26.32, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 19)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ 7♣

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 2♠ 4♦ A♠
Hero checks, CO bets 3.2 BB, Hero calls 3.2 BB

Turn: (12.9 BB, 2 players) Q♠
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (12.9 BB, 2 players) 4♥
Hero checks, CO bets 6.4 BB, fold

CO wins 12.2 BB

I know it is really basic but I tend to get confused in these spots where I only call to win half the pot

So if he bets pot (p) I need to pay p to win 2p/2=p which means I need to be "good" p/2p = 50%
If he bets half pot I need to pay 0.5p to win 1.5p/2, so I need to be "good" 0.5p/1.25p=40%

That should easily be the case here, unlike in many pertinent siuations (e.g. straighty boards), right?

Do not quite know why I folded here... can´t even rule out I misclicked.

At which bet size will you start considering a fold here? Seems excessively tight to me now.

But then again, should he actually bet an A for value against a competent player on this river or rather check to induce bluffs. After all, is he really getting called by Qx (super unlikely Hero has a Q, too, considering flop action) or anything worse than an A? Maybe, considering how small the pot is overall...

I guess he is definitely betting AK and AQ for value...

This river spot confuses the hell out of me.


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9 replies
Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

villain should definitely bet his Ax, since you "never" have better. what is he scared of?
i actually wanna raise :f_biggrin: i would actually play some sets this way, but it's mostly that i'm not giving him credit for sets and it's just hard for his Ax to take the heat


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Villain can bet with pretty much anything here. I would call.


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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

villain should definitely bet his Ax, since you "never" have better. what is he scared of?

as far as I understand it this is bad poker thinking.

it is not about what you are scared of when you bet but either if you will be called by worse or if you will make better fold

and in this spot if he has Ax (worse than AK or AQ) how do you answer these questions?

what distracts us from that here is the tiny pot. If the same decision was for 100 bbs a the end I am sure you see my point?

I willl acknowledge that the ranges are much wider when there is so little betting compared to a big pot, so it is conceivable he bets Ax and hopes to be called by Qx. But how can I have Qx combos here after I call the flop? Also, does he hope to be called by 77 or something like that?

If I have Ax in villain´s spot I think I should check. I just do not see value in a bet in this spot.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think you don't have many Ax in your range and villain doesn't have to think what you might have and what you will call. He can make a thin valuebet because he thinks he beats you very often. If I was villain I would bet small too to get value from weaker Ax, Qx, pocket pairs etc..


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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

you did not look at the board. there is no value from weaker Ax.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Yea that is true. Still there are many weaker hands that might call.
I think it is clear that you do not have a flush here, so if villain has Ax it is either a split or win for him if you call. Why wouldn't he bet? The increased rake is small compared to those times he will win when he gets called by Qx.


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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

What Qx combos could I have here? If you were villain, which Qx combos would you expect different player types to show up with OTR?

Is it not a bit of a stretch to assume I would be floating with an unpaired Q, no flushdraw, on the flop, even when it is just a half pot bet in a small pot, just to justify a value bet on the river?

Just out of interest, at which pot size and river bet size would you reevaluate your assessment of this situation? (e.g. assuming he bets half pot on the turn again, I call, would that chacnge anything for you OTR?)

I might be overanalysing this spot. I see many villains will "valuebet" here with Ax without thinking and I should probably have called.

Ok I just realised I got confused about the positions. I was thinking villain was oop. Obviously, when I check to him it does not seem right to check it back. He cannot even "bluffcatch" lol.

If he were oop, though...XD

Ok I rest my case.


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rompas
Joined: 12.02.2014

half bet pott i would call,, i would start consider fold if he would bet 60% or more


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We can call a half psb but it looks like an Ax that got scared of the flush and after our x is getting for value.


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