A8o, two pairs OTT

Either he has 77 33, given what he did otf and considering the amount of possible draws as well as 3 players in the pot, i'd not hesitate to call the all in.

I think I would call but if I'm not mistaking you need ~50% equity OTT to call.

No he's right about the equity. However I am not sure you can give a 19VPIP guy A7s or A3s preflop (A7o and A3o are out of the question here, I think he almost never calls them preflop) to a 5BB raise when he's OOP. I think his range preflop is something like 22+, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo+, 56s+ maximum; so he doesn't have the two pairs you beat on the turn in the first place.His line is really weird for a combo draw, you usually look to get the maximum amount of money in with those on the flop, so it doesn't make much sense. So it looks a lot like a set. But since you only have 27 hands on him you probably make a crying call and take a look at the set. Some notes/info from previous hands would be very useful here, especially in situations where you have played relatively few hands against him, so the stats aren't reliable or the way tight passive players play on this limit in general would be good to know. I think your call here is okayish given how little info you have, but the flop raise sizing is bad. Either make it 18BB-21BB raise to get value from the draws or just call to keep the pot small. Your raise bloats the pot, but doesn't get nearly enough value from draws; achieving neither of your 2 possible objectives OTF.

A 10BB raise here has 3 disadvantages:
1) You play your hand face-up, raising with such sizing doesn't give you enough fold equity for it being a bluff often enough, you almost always have some Ax hand.
2) You make the pot big so you make sure that if you bluff catch against made/missed draws on later turns you give a big payout to your opponents with what is likely a marginal hand on later streets.
3) You don't force your opponents to make a mistake. It's correct to call with a draw here against your sizing, a set/2 pair will likely know your hand isn't good enough to withstand a raise, a small pair will fold anyway.

It basically feels like a tournament raise, not a cash game raise. It should be a cash game raise here or simply a call :f_smile:.

Originally posted by piR
I think I would call but if I'm not mistaking you need ~50% equity OTT to call.

Pot is 160.2bb, we have to call 60.6
bet/(pot+bet) -> 60.6/(160.2+60.6)=27.4%

Good point ryuuu! Raise sizing OTF here is bad and thank you for good explanation why. Cheers!

Wow, this is really weird. BB´s VPIP seems ok, but what he does OTF is worth a note. Villain bets small F, which seems to me, like some pocket pair and due to his T play, it´s 88. But why bet for 3BB pocket pairs there? That doesn´t make any sense. The turn changes pretty much a lot of things. We can now add monster draws to his range, as well as some AK. And what are we most afraid of - sets. I´d give villain this range: 99-77,33,AKs,Td9d,6d5d,5d4d. And against this we have 57% equity. AKs and 54s might be too optimistical, so basically I think we are flipping here. Given the fact, we already invested in the pot and that we want to see villain´s cards to make very valuable note, I´m slightly more for a call.

Originally posted by Mozzek
Wow, this is really weird.

Yes, I agree, his line is weird. He had 33

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by piR
I think I would call but if I'm not mistaking you need ~50% equity OTT to call.

Pot is 160.2bb, we have to call 60.6
bet/(pot+bet) -> 60.6/(160.2+60.6)=27.4%

Actually he cover us :
So if I'm not wrong :
pot : 147.8
we have to call 60.6
equity : 60.6/147.8 : 41%

So IMO equity needed is not 28% but 41% (if not I do bad calculation of equity for 5 years :p)

I didn't notice that villain is deeper. So the pot actually is 147.8bb as you said and we have to call 60.6bb.
In that case the formula would be 60.6/147.8+60.6=29%.

The formula to calculate pot odds is bet/(pot+bet). The pot before villains raise is 62.8 and now we have to call almost pot size more, so he made a pot size bet besically. To call pot size bets you need 33% equity.

We can make sure that 29% is the correct number by using EV calculation:
When we win, we win that pot 147.8 and we are risking 60.6 to do so.
(147.8*0.29)-(60.6*0.71)= around 0

So if we would win the pot 29% of the times we are on the break even point.

So IMO equity needed is not 28% but 41% (if not I do bad calculation of equity for 5 years :p)

Don't want to disappoint you, but la55i is right

Originally posted by BelligerentBird

So IMO equity needed is not 28% but 41% (if not I do bad calculation of equity for 5 years :p)

Don't want to disappoint you, but la55i is right

So I did bad equity calculation for 5 years ^^ Thx la55i

Originally posted by BelligerentBird

So IMO equity needed is not 28% but 41% (if not I do bad calculation of equity for 5 years :p)

Don't want to disappoint you, but la55i is right

5 Years done it wrong.