888 1$ 9-man 75/150 ATo 16 BB push from SB after open-limp from BU

Why you go all-in with AT at these stacksizes? If you raise to 3BB and get a call, and lets say you cbet the flop and get a call again, you can be almost sure your hand isn't good enough. I think a raise is fine here with 5 players left, but instant all-in move is weird.

If I raise to 3 BB pre and get called by the initial limper (which will happen almost always), the pot will already be > 1100 chips. A c-bet on the flop would have to be at least 400 chips I suppose. I don't see the donkey fold to a < 1/2 pot c-bet very often though.

If I raise to 3 BB pre (450), then c-bet at least another 400 and then give up if the donkey does not fold to the c-bet, I have lost 850 chips (almost a third of my initial stack). I just feel that this will happen far too often in this spot (me ending up having donated a third of my stack to the donkey).

I think raising to 3 BB pre at this blind level with a 16 BB stack is really weird, but I am really anxious to learn what some other SnG pros think about this issue.

If I had only 12-13 BB instead of 16 BB I think that there would be no arguing as for whether or not one should push the ATo here unless we would have reads that the donkey likes to traplimp.

But even with 16 BB, after one limper there is already 450 plus antes in the pot pre which equals around 17% of my stack. Therefore I think that the risk-reward-ratio for a push pre is generally fine here. I am not 100% sure though and therefore would like to hear some more opinions.

Cheers!

I'm not an "SnG pro" either, just telling you my opinion. Losing 1/3 of your stack is still better than going out, especially with only 5 players left. Not losing chips is more important than winning chips here. When you raise to 3 BB here, a donkey in BB would most probably re-raise all-in with a monster hand, so if he shoves after your steal-raise, ATo is a clear fold imo. Even if he plays it smart and just calls you, if you don't hit anything, I'd play check/fold unless you got a strong flush or straight draw.

I'm not an "SnG pro" either, just telling you my opinion.

And I appreciate this, thank you.

I would not worry too much about the big blind though, I think that first in (if everyone before us had folded), even with a 16 BB stack, ATo would be an unexploitable +EV push from the SB. To be honest, against an unknown I would probably even prefer to push it first in (without the limper before us), thus knowing that our play is definitely +EV. If I raise and the donkey reshoves it would be very hard for me to estimate a random donkey's reshoving range. I'd say it strongly depends on the donkey and I would not assume that the donkey would necessarily have to hold a strong hand if it reshoves. However, all these thoughts apply for a different situation than the one we were initially discussing.

In the present situation it all depends on the limp/call range of the donkey who has limped from the button. I have seen donkeys limp/calling in spots very comparable to this one with tons of crap hands like (almost) any ace or any broadway hand. Against such donkeys, our push with ATo would even be for value.

All in all I am pretty sure that pushing ATo for 16 BB against an unknown donkey who open limps from the button is +EV. The only question is if you guys think that raising pre instead of shoving and then re-evaluating on the flop would have an even higher EV against an unknown donkey at this buyin-level.

It depends a lot what kind of stats and reads we have on our BTN limper. If he’s always raising and now he limps for the first time first in I would be suspicious, but otherwise I don’t think it’s a bad spot to push. I expect he will almost always fold here.

Cheers,
SDK1987