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SH Zoom AJs, Top Two Facing Flop Check/Raise

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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $25 (100 bb)
BB: $33.72 (134.9 bb)
Hero (UTG): $33.75 (135 bb)
MP: $61.92 (247.7 bb)
CO: $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $68.61 (274.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A♣: J♣:
Hero raises to $0.62, MP folds, CO calls $0.62, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.59) 4♠: J♥: A♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.01, CO raises to $2.75, Hero calls $1.74

Turn: ($7.09) 3♣: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($15.09) 2♥: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero calls $5

Preflop: Standard.

Flop: Cbetting for value. CO plays 21/14 in 73 hands. I don't think I can fold top two. JJ+ is probably 3betting preflop.

Turn: I think it's close now. On first side, I think top two pair is too strong to fold, but on the other I will have a worse hand very often in those situations.

River: He bets really small and I probably have odds to call top two pairs, but that size also indicates value usually. Can I fold now?


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16 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Well, I think he will not xr with AK, AQ. You split with AJ... There maybe possible A4s,but I doubt it...
You are down vs sets...
River bet is inviting...
Fold.


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gxtwo
Joined: 15.12.2010

Personally i'm never folding here. WP imo


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

Generally I would also call OTR. If he had set, he should go AI imo. Unless he realizes that you are not gonna call AI but u might call this sized bet. So, I guess, the question is, do we think, villain is smart enough to do this with set? Or am I wrong? :)


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

What other hands do you think he has?


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

AK, A4s, AJ, 44, JJ - this is the range I´d give him OTR. My guess is he had AKs. If he had 44, then I gotta say wp.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Why he will xr AK on this flop??? This is not common.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

Because he wants to get some value. He holds very strong hand and knows that aleen is not betting J OTT, however is not folding A to raise OTF. OTT he goes for more value. OTR he probably still believes he can get some calls from worse. Well, but this is probably the scenario, where we underestimate our opponent, honestly I´m not so convinced about it now . However, if he played 44 like that, it seems too advanced for nl25, but it´s just my point of view, never actually been at nl25 .

Edit: Also, OTF, villain might feel needing a protection, as we might be on straight draw.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I will have to disagree here. Villain knows that he will make all weaker hands fold. For example AQ will fold vs the xr...

It is common to see a set here.


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fusionpk
Joined: 21.01.2010

I probably fold T in this spot. Pretty exploitable fold and if I were playing GTO ish strategy then this is probably bottom of my call down range. Given that it's bottom of my range and that any GTO ish strategy here is not necessary I make the exploitable fold and expect it to have a higher EV. Make a note on villain and if he is getting out of line here in the future then you can opt for the more unexploitable strategy. Given how many real bluffs he can have in his range here I think call F giveup T makes sense. We get way too good odds OTF to fold. (We can make a boat here and he may check back some turns)


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Saren113
Joined: 06.03.2009

If we are folding top two, what is then our calling range? :f_confused:


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Well it is not just top2p. You have to acknowledge the board too. What hands will raise/bet/bet here?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Villain could check raise some backdoor draws but I doubt he will 3 barrel them and if he does he probably bets river a bit bigger. So His range probably is sets and 2pair, and sometimes AK but it would be very thin to play AK like this.
While I can agree with the turn call and I think we get good odds to call OTR, I believe we are very often losing or only splitting the pot. Making an exploitative fold OTR would be fine imo.


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fusionpk
Joined: 21.01.2010

Originally posted by Saren113
If we are folding top two, what is then our calling range? :f_confused:

This is what makes the fold suck. But we are not folding this hand on F so our F range is still protected. It's just the exploitable fold on the T that sucks. But really what bluffs does villain have? His PF range is tight anyway, most KQ QTs etc just float F and they only have gutters. I just make the fold here with no reads assume villain is average make a note and then if I see him raising boards like this again I add this to my call down range and build a more unexploitable range here in future.

Originally posted by la55i
Villain could check raise some backdoor draws but I doubt he will 3 barrel them and if he does he probably bets river a bit bigger. So His range probably is sets and 2pair, and sometimes AK but it would be very thin to play AK like this.
While I can agree with the turn call and I think we get good odds to call OTR, I believe we are very often losing or only splitting the pot. Making an exploitative fold OTR would be fine imo.

Villain isn't x/raising here he is raising IP it makes quite a big difference since the range that someone would perhaps x/rai probably floats IP. I think if your game plan is calling T (which is ok if you are constructing your range this way) then you have to call R for this price. We should be calling here 80% vs this sizing. Assuming you construct your range the way you do you probably have way too many AK combos to fold AJ (I'm assuming you call T with AK if you call with AJ)

But I think a standard Villain here with no reads or stats or history vs us isn't bluffing here anywhere near enough so why even try to balance our range like above. May aswell play exploitable whilst we have the opportunity and maximise our EV.

Just my thoughts - I'm not the greatest player so they might be along way off. I'm pretty rusty atm just getting back into poker again which is why I'm trying to review some hands :)


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

You are right, villain is IP and it might make his raising range more value heavy.
He maybe could have A4 or he could have sometimes AK or we might split with AJ. I also see some backdoors and gutters bluff raising sometimes. I would call turn because it doesn't change anything and villain can keep on barreling his bluffs and those weaker made hands sometimes but often gives up OTR. But when he bets OTR small too I think it makes his range a lot stronger.

I think folding already OTT is ok. I also think calling turn and making an exploitative fold OTR is ok. And calling it down because of the small bet size is ok.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

On dry boards it is quite pointless to try to guess villain's range using logic. It will invariably end up with "he is raising if and only if he has me beat".

Better is to ask the question "does villain have the balls to bluff balanced with air ( = gutters, JTs, pp, etc) here?"

If the answer is "yes", then you still have a problem. It is close. At least I don't see the "GTO solution" right away. Maybe fold some, and call some AJ combos is right. Bet size matters, and don't put in "reads" into the bet size. The assumption all along was that he's balanced.

If the answer is "no" or "don't know", then fold at some point.


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smerti1111
Joined: 31.03.2009

He still can have A4 or AJ at the river and bet them for value, so obviously you can not fold, not for 5$ bet.


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