Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

MTT Tournament near bubble AQs

4 Posts
2 Users
2 Reactions
511 Views
Kinghu
Joined: 27.09.2016

iPoker - <> NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MTT Tournament about 20/21 players over 3 tables payments start from 15th, so getting near bubble. I have a good chip stack siting in around the top 5 stacks.

This is an area that I think is a weakness in my game, but I would like second opinions.

UTG: 40.36 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 16.33, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 51)
Hero (UTG+1): 45 BB
MP: 54.48 BB (VPIP: 20.86, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 164)
CO: 14.56 BB (VPIP: 28.93, PFR: 10.74, 3Bet Preflop: 7.94, Hands: 121)
BTN: 22.03 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 52)
SB: 30.24 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 16.42 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 13.16, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 40)

7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Q♣ A♣

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (8.4 BB, 2 players) 2♦ 6♣ 9♣
UTG bets 4.2 BB, Hero calls 4.2 BB

Turn: (16.79 BB, 2 players) 5♦
UTG bets 8.4 BB, Hero ?

Spoiler

fold
UTG wins 25.19 BB

One way I think I should be more agressive and 3 bet PF, or shove the flop with 2 over cards and nut flush draw. Which I think I may not do enough at this stage.
The other way is more conserveative, that I have a good chip stack and do not want to get involved with someone who could bust me out, so calling and seeing flop, with 12 outs call cbet, turn still have 12 outs should I call again, 3bet, shove or fold and keep good stack to pick on others?


Reply
Quote
3 replies
samni
Joined: 06.08.2009

I think it sucks pretty hard to get in 40bb on the flop with two overs and a flushdraw. Especially because IF you get it in, you're usually up against a hand vs wich your overs are usually not that good (QQ+). He might stack off with TT or JJ every once in a blue moon but I don't think so. Vs KK we have 45% equity for example. We're too deep to go flipping here for a 90bb pot. Best case scenario is getting it in vs TT with no clubs vs which you have 54%, which is also not great.
I wouldn't raise flop here with the nutflushdraw because our hand can easily be best and if not we can either improve or bluff him off a lower pocket pair on later streets (he can have 77 here, cbetting this board but giving up later).
The turn is quite brick-y and he bets again. At this point I simply don't put him on an airball anymore. He must have some kind of hand because this simply isn't the board to be double barreling unless he has some sort of combodraw which is unlikely as we have the nutflushdraw blocked and I don't see him raising KJcc preflop utg. So he basically hasn't got too many flushdraws in his range. What does he have then? Overpairs are most likely although his bets seem on the lower side for him to have AA or KK, he can also have a set. That's basically it.

Versus a range of 99+, 22-55-66 and AK of diamonds (which is like the only non-pair hand that might decide to go for a second barrel), we have roughly 25%.

Which aspects do we take into account
- If we hit, we might win a big pot because loads of his valuerange is going to go for three streets.
- He might have some airballbluffs (not lots though) vs which we are still winning OR vs which our overs might still be good. This increases our equity and makes the call on the turn more profitable.
- If we lose, we still have around 28bb, which is still a workable stack.

So I guess I still call turn here and re-evaluate river. If it comes a non pair club, going for as much value as possible. If it pairs the board with a club, I evaluate his sizing, same if it comes A or Q, and I fold on a brick.

Be aware that this is only with these stacksizes on these positions. If shorter (around 25bb-30bb) I probably raise flop to get it in. If villain is otb and we are in the small blind, I 3bet pre. If the player is a wildman, I might still play more agressive in this spot too, so it's basically very read and player dependent aswell.


Reply
Quote
Kinghu
Joined: 27.09.2016

Thanks samni, Its a good answer, clearly written I can see why you moved into coaching here.

I think it this tournament I had AKs a few hands later and played the same calling the turn this time and not hitting anything.

With these two hands not hitting, left me with a 20BB stack and back in the middle of the stacks left, which its why I was wondering if I should have been more aggressive, or given up earlier and kept my big stack.

I know that its unlucky not to hit either flop but I think with AKs missing the flop 66% and AQ similar thats its not unexpected to miss twice.
In the 20-25 BB stage or below I would shove it, but with 40 BB should we play them as suggested above, because if we miss flop twice and call one turn and still miss its about half our stack gone.


Reply
Quote
samni
Joined: 06.08.2009

It's not only about how much you lose if you do, it's about getting the correct prices to hunt the flush. As long as those are alright, you have nothing to worry about. Also, it's pretty standard that you have to rebuild a couple of times in the duration of a tournament. So yeah, based on your story, you were unlucky to miss your flush twice but it happens. As you said, 20bb still puts you in the middle of the pack, giving you the perfect reshovestack to start rebuilding your 45bb stack again, so still, nothing to worry about :)


Reply
Quote