(under)bet river here?

I think both are fine,personally i would bet there like 1/3 pot or a bit bigger, but it depends a lot on opponent too. What is he 3 betting there, if he is 3 betting weak aces too or not. Is he a passive player?

Mmmmm, just xb and see the showdown. What weaker Ax are going to pay you? Or weaker hands....

AQ only indeed

Not so sure about AQ...

I think underbet he would. Why wouldn't he? He doesn't have to win that often in that case.

Originally posted by Hesticus
I think underbet he would. Why wouldn't he? He doesn't have to win that often in that case.

but then on the other hand, B/F river is super annoying no?

think about it in this way, if he is folding all his aqs and his crap and only callying with 2 pair+ (assuming he has some a5 etc as well in 3b sbvsbu range) then it makes no sense no?

its 7 combos of aq and 8 of 2p 2 of a4, then if he is trapping 3 nutted combos. I am very bad at poker math since im noob so sorry in advance :). But probably x back and also getting some infos on opp 3b range is good

Hi antLrace,

Thanks for your comment I understand your thought process. It makes sense at first sight and I am also not a pokermath geek ♦ However, I recently learned from w34z3l that underbetting for protection is close to xb OTR in terms of EV+ provided you have approximately 50% equity. We need to agree on ranges then so we may conclude whether an underbet here is right.

so i will try, sorry in advance if its not correct adn boring lol
ev of betting has to be >check. lets see,

first lets give villain range otr after X, i would say something like this:
AsKs, AdQd, AsQs, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AsJc (17 combos)

i removed AA and put two trap combos and remove some AJ since he would not 3b all of them and B/B all of them. then would lets assume he calls with 2p hands some AQo (one with spde blocker) and removed AK since ev wise we split, and raises only with traps (you can tweak this) and fold some AQo as well (seems reasonable to me).

X=we bet he raises
Y=we bet he calls and we win
Y'=we bet he calls and we lose
Z=we bet he folds

EV(bet) = P(X)amt(X) + P(Y)amt(Y)+P(Y')amt(Y') + P(Z)amt(Z)

p(x)= 2/17=0.12%
p(y)= 3/17=0.17%
p(y')=8/17=0.47%
p(z)= 4/17= 0.23%

pot is 400$

we bet 135$

amt(x)=-135
amt(y)=535
amt(y')=-135
amt(z)=400

EV(bet) = (0.12)-135 + P(0.17)670+P(0.47)-135 + P(.23)400
-16.2+90.95-63.45+92
=103.3

EV(check) = P(win)amt(win) + P(lose)amt(lose)

P(win) = 7/17 = 0.41

P(lose) = 10/17 = 0.59

amt(win) =400
amt(lose)=0 (not sure if this is correct)

EV(check) = P(win)amt(win) + P(lose)amt(lose)
(0.41)400+(0.59)0
=164

lol that was good practice ♦ hope is correct:f_mad:, and is very pessimistic scenario.....but obviously those are assumptions and we cant know for sure what is exact range there is (and we need to precisely know ev) neverthless you can guess depending on how many combos aq he is folding, and how many 2p he could have there if a bet there is +ev or not.

Originally posted by Hesticus
Hi antLrace,

We need to agree on ranges then so we may conclude whether an underbet here is right.

yes! lol my previous post is useless now, but thats why going to showdown its good so u actually get infos. Then giving him ranges becomes easier

in my previous post i also geve him a bit too many 2p hands so probably ev ov betting is not that horrible, but still knowing ranges but expecially if he can call with aq there as well.

Originally posted by Hesticus
... that underbetting for protection....

but thats when out of position and that is another story or he meant something elese?

Originally posted by antLrace

Originally posted by Hesticus
... that underbetting for protection....

but thats when out of position and that is another story or he meant something elese?

Yes that is true indeed. You are right. That is a different story and indeed w34z3l favors here xb as well I believe. Thanks!

I might 4bet pre but postflop looks good. I think w34z3l indeed mentioned that we should be carefull when betting for thin value IP because we could be closing the action. AQ might call a thin valuebet but imo that is close too.