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AQs push against a 3-bet drama queen

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rvnikauj
Joined: 03.02.2017

PokerStars - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 113 BB
SB: 309 BB (VPIP: 28.19, PFR: 23.59, 3Bet Preflop: 13.39, Hands: 1,700)
BB: 92.5 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.60, PFR: 14.95, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 629)
MP: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 18.85, PFR: 15.78, 3Bet Preflop: 4.87, Hands: 5,019)
CO: 79.5 BB (VPIP: 52.17, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 73)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ Q♦

fold, MP raises to 4 BB, CO calls 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, SB raises to 21 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 113 BB and is all-in, SB calls 92 BB

Flop: (235 BB, 2 players) 6♦ 6♣ T♥

Turn: (235 BB, 2 players) 7♥

River: (235 BB, 2 players) Q♣

Spoiler

SB shows T♣ T♦ (Full House, Tens full of Sixes)
(Pre 57%, Flop 99%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows A♣ Q♦ (Two Pair, Queens and Sixes)
(Pre 43%, Flop 1%, Turn 0%)
SB wins 225.5 BB

Longstory short, this guy three bets a lot (often caught with rubbish) in this kind of spots (squeeze play?) in the SB, relevant stats:

So I decided to push. the same situation happened with me pushing AKs and he calling with 77


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10 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I would squeeze myself pre.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 43.56% 37.79% 5.77% AQo
MP3 56.44% 50.66% 5.77% 66+, ATs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, AQo+

Not sure if pushing AQo is profitable even against a wide range.


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rvnikauj
Joined: 03.02.2017

What about TT+, AKo, AKs?

       Equity   Ganar  Empate
SB     38.91%  36.52%   2.39% { 66+, ATs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, AQo+ }
BB     61.09%  58.71%   2.39% { TT+, AKs, AKo }

And a question arises, with 60% equity (JJ+, AQs+, AKo) against his stat "sb vs bin 3bet"=19.84=66+, A4s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+(Is this right calculated?), could it be profitable to shove? to call?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

When figuring out if you have a profitable shove you can't use range vs range equity. It is villains range vs your hand.


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rvnikauj
Joined: 03.02.2017

Originally posted by la55i
When figuring out if you have a profitable shove you can't use range vs range equity. It is villains range vs your hand.

Thanks, a lot of work yet to be done!


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I would squeeze too. You have perfect situation for that. MP is quite tight and CO seems a fish even for that small sample.
With your call you do 2 things:
1. You tell that you do not have a premium hand.
2. You create an even better opportunity for the blinds to squeeze.

I do not like the push as we will be losing money.


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rvnikauj
Joined: 03.02.2017

Originally posted by nitrol
I would squeeze too. You have perfect situation for that. MP is quite tight and CO seems a fish even for that small sample.
With your call you do 2 things:
1. You tell that you do not have a premium hand.
2. You create an even better opportunity for the blinds to squeeze.

I do not like the push as we will be losing money.

If both of them were tight or one of them were high and the other loose as SB, would squeeze play be advised? Is the squeeze play 3x+"1x each caller", and only applies to two players right?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Because there is already dead money in the pot, you don't basically need over 50% to break even. With this pot size and your raise size you have to win this around 47% to BE. That is if we assume 0 fold equity. When you add in the rake it would be better to have over 50% equity to really make some money with a shove.
If you have only that 38% equity, villain must fold around 40% for you to make profit.

So to figure out if this really is profitable, you should estimate how big part of his squeezing range he will fold, and how much equity you have vs his calling range.

He seems to 3bet actively, his squeeze could be wide.. Maybe something like this: 88+, ATs+, A5s-A2s, KQs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AJo+ ? That is 126 combos.
He likes to stack off wide, so he might call with this: 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+. 86 combos.

That is about 30% fold equity and against that range you would have 41% equity. That would make it slightly profitable shove. Take in rake and it is about break even.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by rvnikauj

Originally posted by nitrol
I would squeeze too. You have perfect situation for that. MP is quite tight and CO seems a fish even for that small sample.
With your call you do 2 things:
1. You tell that you do not have a premium hand.
2. You create an even better opportunity for the blinds to squeeze.

I do not like the push as we will be losing money.

If both of them were tight or one of them were high and the other loose as SB, would squeeze play be advised? Is the squeeze play 3x+"1x each caller", and only applies to two players right?

If both are tight they both may fold.
Squeeze is when someone opens, other one/two/three call and you 3b.


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rvnikauj
Joined: 03.02.2017

I knew it from harrington in tournaments but i didn't know the mechanisms or the ranges to apply it for cash. Is platinum info, so i'd have to work more!


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

It is not platinum... :)


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