PokerStars - €0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (MP): 101.4 BB
CO: 72.6 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
BTN: 101 BB (VPIP: 15.97, PFR: 13.10, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 322)
SB: 286.6 BB (VPIP: 20.02, PFR: 17.09, 3Bet Preflop: 6.37, Hands: 3,499)
BB: 150 BB (VPIP: 15.25, PFR: 13.79, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 62)
UTG: 80 BB (VPIP: 57.43, PFR: 15.84, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 108)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, UTG posts penalty blind 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Q♠ K♠
UTG checks, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 6 BB
Flop: (20 BB, 2 players) 8♠ J♣ 6♠
SB checks, Hero bets 12.6 BB, SB calls 12.6 BB
Turn: (45.2 BB, 2 players) T♥
SB bets 28.6 BB, Hero raises to 79.8 BB and is all-in, SB calls 51.2 BB
River: (204.8 BB, 2 players) 5♣
Pre I got 3bet by small blind. VI 3bet range wide (9%) I call IP.
OTF I decided to bet 0.5 psb I think I'd have to bet harder. something like 2/3, representing AJ or better then he'd fold anything but better hands on that scary board.
OTT he bets and I decided to push because I counted +14 outs. Now I see this could be a mistake but I was going to remain with almost a psb and maybe not hitting.
Which hands do fold here? AK, AQ, maybe KJ & other draws. Which not? Sets (just JJ, TT in 3bet BTNvsMP) , double Pairs such as JTs, and Q9 but is not in villain 3bet range in my opinion.
If he is calling with AJ he is not winning that much as we have even 2 overcards.
He is not paying a dime with the third spade at the table.
Maybe I go the concept wrong isn't but polarizing shove OTF, OTT with nuts or strong draws is good for my game.
Could be ever Overberting/jamming the flop a good or better idea?
TL;DR
I overplayed the hand horribly and sort of I'm really sorry for this shitty play. But I wanted to comment it with you and get feedback about what are lines I could follow, because I see c/c/f very weak.
I shoved the turn because i had a strong draw and thought that a remaining stack of 1 psb OTR if I just call committed me to the pot.
Overbettin the flop could be a good idea?
The math says I jammed for 79 BB in a 74 BB pot so I need a equity of 50% to break even. With max 17 outs (flush + OESD)
optimal scenario I have 34% to win the pot I need villain folding 16% of the times.
Worst scenario is he got JJ and I count 15 outs, so 20% equity so we need villain folding 30%.
Is 30% fold equity doable in a 3 bet pot as this?
